每日更新 - 美联储和基金 The Daily Update - Fed and funds

随着本周英国退欧一直持续波动市场,主权债券收益率已经降至新低,而美国国债曲线继续持平。从历史来看,收益率如此大幅跌落以及美国国债曲线持平之久预示经济衰退的逼近;由于全球金融市场的不确定性放大了这一走势,我们认为在现阶段称之为衰退尚为时过早。然而,由于对全球停滞的担忧,以及好坏参半的经济数据的进一步疲软无疑会挫伤已然不堪一击的市场气氛,短期内,我们看不到任何好转迹象。事实上,昨天公布的六月份公开市场委员会会议相对谨慎的会议记录中一再提到“不确定性”,这表明了加息会进一步延迟而未来利率上升将更加缓慢。

美联储理事丹尼尔·塔鲁洛昨天表示,在考虑英国退欧风险之前,美国就业和通胀数据已经无法满足加息条件。他评论说,美联储应该等待通胀加快至央行2%水平的更多证据出现,“通货膨胀不是在我们的既定目标,也没有接近我们的既定目标,而且在相当长的一段时间也不会是我们的既定目标。”美联储期望的通胀指标,核心PCE指数5月上升至1.6%。塔鲁洛继续就劳动力市场疲软补充说,“经济运行并没有过热”。

我们早就说过,我们认为美联储今年难以升息,而现在随着英国退欧影响,看来即使2017年也不会升息;但依据期货市场而定。我们期待明天发布的非农就业数据会进一步揭示美联储的想法。继上个月出乎意外的数据疲弱之后,市场6月将预期新增至少十八万个就业机会。

与此同时,在近期市场事件中看似未受影响的是我们在中东和俄罗斯的控股;这也是今年上半年表现最好的区域。卡塔尔主权债券继续升高,例如2040年到期的6.4%发行债券已经在公投结果宣布后上涨大约6点,下跌了约33基点,仅有4%的收益率。昨日,俄罗斯10年200亿卢布(3.09亿美元))拍卖上市,由于其加权平均收益率为8.57%,深受渴望收益的市场欢迎。我们的投资组合中只有硬通货债券,像以7.487%发行,2031年到期的俄罗斯铁路公司(GBP)及以8.625%发行,2034年到期的美元天然气工业股份公司继续跑赢大市,自今年年初获得平均18点,分别继续获得6.2%和5.9%收益率,极具吸引力。

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