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国际货币基金组织(IMF)7月19日最新经济报告显示全球经济增长预期再次下调:2016年为3.1%,而2017年为3.4%。报告指出“英国退欧投票意味着经济、政治和体制的不确定性大幅增加,预计会导致消极宏观经济表现,对先进的欧洲经济体而言更是如此。”英国的经济增长预期在2016年降至1.7%,但2017年估计降低至0.9%到1.3%。

如今的英国采购经理人指数数据证实了国际货币基金组织的悲观预期,因为英国采购经理人综合指数从六月的54.2下降至七月的47.7,达到2009年4月以来的最低交易水平。 服务业的组成尤其脆弱。尽管,德国采购经理人指数数据依然强劲,综合指数从六月的54.4上升至七月的55.3,国际货币基金组织仍将2017年德国经济增长预期降低0.4%至1.2%。同时我们注意到,本周早些时候公布的七月欧洲经济研究中心调查消极地认为德国经济下降至2012年以来的最低水平,而昨日的欧洲央行声明指出,“欧元区经济增长前景的风险仍然偏向下行。”

我们认为英国退欧不仅阻碍全球经济增长,而且带来强有力的结构约束:正如我们之前报道过人口趋势和长期性经济停滞进入缓慢的增长模式。此外,全球债务水平增加;在许多情况下,促使实施紧缩政策,而不平等的加剧促进“民粹政治”的实施。在这些趋势下,利率处于如此低或负水平,而通胀仍然平缓的情况不足为奇。这使得债权国投资债券超过4%的收益率令人心悦诚服。

从更积极的角度来看,国际货币基金组织经济增长预期看好的一个国家是俄罗斯:该国2016年增长上调0.6%-1.2%,而2017年增长预期上调0.2%至1%。低油价和制裁仍然是制约因素,但确实低谷已过去。尽管人们对制裁效力越来越怀疑,制裁仍然存在,因为明斯克II协议继续实施。俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫指出,为了乌克兰重新获得边境控制,他们仍需要执行明斯克II协议的某些条款:“我们已经向他们解释很多次,如果没有赦免和关于特殊身份、真正保证(自称)领土额外权限的法律,那么只要乌克兰宪法没有永久保障这些权利,很难相信,顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克将同意提前实施明斯克协定原本结束的政治进程,而不是将其视作前提条件。”

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