每日更新 - 意大利各银行阿布扎比 The Daily Update - Italian banks Abu Dhabi

根据斯特拉顿街外国净资产(NFA)评分系统,意大利国内生产总值得分为-32%,取得三星评级,比肩英国和美国(均为三星评级国家)。然而,意大利政府债务高达2.2万亿欧元左右,为意大利年经济产出的133%。

三大机构对意大利的平均评级为BBB。根据欧元相对价值模型(RVM)“公允价值”指标,3年期基准交易应超过国债约147基点,而并非当前交易的64基点,这相当于每年实际收益仅为-3基点。5年期限时出现类似情况,“公允价值”超过德国国债曲线175基点,而交易仅仅达到+90基点,每年收益率仅为微薄的0.3%。

根据我们的分析,意大利政府目前的财务状况不容乐观。既然如此,为什么意大利各大银行所持的政府债券仍高达4100亿欧元呢(参考欧洲央行一月份报告)?要知道,这个比例在业内远远高于其他主要欧洲国家。

意大利各大银行的资产负债表显示,除了这些低效益的资产之外,不良贷款(NPLs)的比例也非常高。据统计,这一比例约占贷款总额的17%至21%,约为意大利国内生产总值的12%。在某些情况下,各种程度不一的不良贷款甚至可能到占银行资产负债表的30%,十分可怕。这种情形确实令人担忧。

难怪昨天STOXX 600银行指数举行的“十大输家”大赛,意大利人就以七席大获全胜。 难道近期冰岛、西班牙和爱尔兰各大银行给政府捅的娄子还不够大吗? 意大利人吸取教训了吗?哦不!并没有。

接下来再看看其他地方。近期,阿布扎比国民银行(NBAD)和第一海湾银行(FGB)决定合并。这意味着, 双方合并后的资产负债总额将达到$1,750亿,另一方面,银行市值也将上涨到$ 291亿(截止6月30日)。如果成功合并,这一全新机构将在规模上力压渣打银行、苏格兰皇家银行和法国农业信贷银行等三大银行,成为业内翘楚。

阿布扎比是阿联酋NFA系统的成员,作为一个七星评级国家,其NFA得分达到国内生产总值的+248%。然而,显然阿布扎比也拥有三大主要评级机构的独立评级——AA。

目前,NBAD发行三年期美元债券,是2019年的3%,产出效益为2%(达到UST + 130基点)。RVM方面表示,就AA-评级问题,其“公允价值”仅为56基点,因此为四信用等级。

FGB也发三年期债券,2019一月的3.25%产生1.92%(相当于UST + 130基点),“公允价值”为二信用等级,相差101基点。

总而言之,我们努力想要传达的只有一点:意大利国债对投资者而言不会有任何回报,意大利银行也最好敬而远之(即便其债券价格再诱人)——当心!它们大有当选欧盟金融界下一颗扫把星的势头。

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