每日更新 - 货币政策背后的几丝生机 The Daily Update - Monetary policy silver linings

英国央行(BOE)今天的金融稳定报告揭示了“近期国内重大金融稳定危机背后的几线生机...危机已经逐渐水落石出。

振作起来吧!不列颠人民和你们的经济!局面并没有想象的那么糟糕,经济也并非停滞不前——富时指数公司100正在触底反弹,法国和德国客户给伦敦城的广告业带来了井喷式的业务,诸多法律和贸易专家也纷纷摆脱了失业的尴尬。

然而事实苦乐参半。富时指数公司反弹似乎主要是得益于英镑的持续下跌;伦敦广告业务的激增,看来也是欧盟趁火打劫者的把戏,想要利诱英国各大银行搬迁到巴黎,魅惑初创企业转移到柏林;至于政府急于聘请法律和贸易专家,原因无非是其毫无防备,与欧盟的谈判越深入才越意识到:我们需要人手!

同样悲喜交加的是,继英国退欧公投后,近期现实生活压力测试相对良好(参见今天英国央行的金融稳定报告)。今天的新闻发布会及报告显示,尽管英国脱欧带来的不稳定性持续发酵,但全球金融危机后的进行的一系列,似乎帮助金融市场运作得“相当不错”。 英国央行行长马克·卡尼在声明中提醒市场,“自金融危机以来,英国主要银行已经筹集了1,300多亿英镑资金,而今其一级资本总量相当于风险加权资产的13.5%...... 我们所有的主要银行和建房互助协会均通过去年的压力测试,其中包括的损失,是全球金融危机期间产生的损失的两倍...... 英国主要银行现在持有价值超过6,000亿英镑的优质流动资产,约为金融危机之前数额的四倍。

其他见好的形式,还包括金边债券收益率的骤减。这有助于降低公共赤字,另外也给予了财政部充分的理由,废除之前设定的债务目标,并允许政府灵活地以创纪录的低收益率借贷。此外,由于目前普通英国家庭习惯了贷款消费(这是史无前例的),英镑大幅下跌已经朝着有利于经济调控的方向发展,这对经济的发展至关重要。”。

“逐渐浮现”的重大危机包括:“只要外资稍有风吹草动,这种庞大得史无前例的经常账户赤字可能就会崩溃”, “商业地产的调整可能会限制英国企业的信贷条件” ,并且“困难户可能会增加”。——这就是为什么报告发布之后,英国央行还宣布将进一步出台措施,以促进持续的金融稳定。货币政策和货币调整也许已经帮助英国渡过了难关,但还远远无法引导经济向好。若想经济转好,仍需要政府的积极引导。但是,目前似乎还是缺少路线图和引路人。在这样的暴风疾雨下,还是祈祷未来会出台充分的(货币政策)措施,以帮助我们渡过难关吧!

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