每日更新 - 非农就业数据 The Daily Update - Non-farm payrolls

7月8日公布的六月份非农就业数据比预期高出许多:工作岗位增加了287,000个,而预期仅有180,000个。五月份的这一数据则让人大失所望,从预期的38,000个新增岗位一路下调至11,000个,而这两个月修正相差-6000。失业率微升4.9%,而参与率也小幅走高至62.7%。平均每小时的收入按年增长2.6%,略低于预期,并高于前月的同比增长率2.5%。平均工作时长保持34.4不变。

高于预期的数据增加了旧金山美联储主席约翰•威廉姆斯的底气,他在本周早些时候发表评论,称五月份就业疲软不过是威瑞森罢工和天气的夸大作用所致的假象:今年早些时候的好天气,意味着今年早些时候有更多的就业机会,这直接反应在强劲的二月份就业数据上。他补充道:“基本上就业增长态势仍然非常好,高于预期,今年上半年也都保持着这样的增长格局。”

尽管如此,美联储很可能继续保持谨慎,因为六月联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要满眼是“不确定”的字眼,并表示“谨慎的做法是等待更多的有关劳动力市场状况数据和信息,以进一步评估英国脱欧公投可能给全球金融状况和美国经济前景带来的影响。”纽约美联储主席威廉•达德利本周也评论说:“经济前景目前并不明朗,通货膨胀也要低于预期,这种情况下更应该保持谨慎。如果剔除能源部门,通胀仍稍低于我们的理想预期....要想让经济在融通性货币政策下平稳运转,就不能轻举妄动。如果通胀率再高一些......我们很可能会采用更积极的货币政策。”

显然,英国退欧投票增加了不确定性;再考虑到美元紧缩,这对经济十分不利。尽管当前就业数据强劲,但在弄清近期一系列事件(都发生在数据公布之后)究竟对经济增长有多大的影响之前,美联储将继续保持审慎。目前,美国经济增长仍然面临着许多下行风险。如果通胀持续温和,美元进一步紧缩,增长放缓,那么我们希望“散点图轨迹”保持不变。。制定任何政策,最终都要依赖于数据。写这篇文章的时候,美联储期货2016年12月仍暗示只有23.7%的升息机会,而数据公布前预期为11.8%。

过去几个星期中,美国财政部收益率曲线持续放缓;导致这一局面的原因复杂,如英国退欧公投对全球经济增长预期的负面影响、世界对美国经济增长缺乏信心、美联储加息可能性渺茫、‘向安全资产的逃亡’及美元紧缩等。即使美国经济数据促使美联储加息,我们预计美联储“为长远计”,收益率曲线仍将保持平缓,短时间内不会大幅走高。

当今世界,有接近11.7tn美元的主权债券正以负利率交易优质的欧洲债券(尤其是债券国发行的)提供了不错的收益是一项十分诱人的投资。

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