每日更新 - 英国央行货币政策委员会 - The Daily Update - UK monetary policy committee

英国新总理将在周三上任。继主要挑战者退出竞争后,特丽莎·梅将成为英国的第二位女性总理-比预期提前两个月上任。两个主要政党之间的情势真是天差地别——工党政客们仍在试图摆脱刚刚上任九个月的党魁。据新闻报道,英镑收益连续三天上涨,至1.3122,而英国10年期金边债券稍微恢复,约0.5个百分点,但同时应该考虑的是,继6月23日投票之后,其几乎反弹六个百分点。

梅的首要工作重点是内阁改组和财政政策。她需要迅速决定英国退欧谈判领导者、财政大臣,以及继任内政大臣并应对公投、移民等主要事宜的合适人选。梅已经表明,她倾向于等待启动里斯本条约第50条。假如启动,为期两年的脱欧进程将在明年展开,而非今年。

另一方面,英格兰银行的货币政策辩论情势发生了大逆转。就在几个星期前,市场一度就何时出台紧缩政策下赌注;而今面临投票后的经济疲软,虽然宽松政策最早也不可能在本周出台,但肯定在下个月内左右。

由于经济活动有明显的衰弱迹象,央行货币政策委员会将将不得不在通胀和经济增长之间作出权衡。但目前最大的问题是,在未来几个月经济究竟将放缓多久?现在就采取措施稳定预期的下行风险,可能在之后会有所回报。问题的另一方面是,英镑价值近10%的跌幅势必会推动进口价格水涨船高,导致通胀指标上涨。在这种形势下,央行货币政策委员会将不得不就价格上涨幅度和通胀持续期长短作出预测。

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