每日更新 - The Daily Update - What would the martians think...?

三十年前的今天,苏联发射了当时最大的空间站——和平号空间站。就在昨天有报道说,美国国家航空航天局由于不明飞行物进入地球大气层,剪切了国际空间站的视频来源。如果情况属实,火星人确实造访了地球,那么他们应该是乘直升机来的(如果克利夫兰联储·洛雷塔·美斯特语出惊人的话可信)。

美斯特在澳大利亚广播公司的演播室谈到,由于量化宽松政策已经“证明行之有效”,如果美国遭受经济衰退,“如果......我们要更加宽松,直升机货币可能是下一步的选择”,因为弹药余量短缺。她对长期维持零利率和可能引起的“金融稳定风险”表示担忧,并补充说,她相信联邦公开市场委员会委员没有操纵汇率。英国脱欧带来了许多未知的风险,美斯特说,委员会将继续评估其对美国经济环境及经济的影响。至少在2017年11月之前,期货市场不会加息。我们重申,我们认为美联储今年会尽量推动加息政策出台。

与此同时,由于新任英国首相特丽莎·梅积极重组内阁,准备履行央行“欧盟我们拖定了”的承诺,利率维持在50个基点不变。该结果一公布,就令一些造市商措手不及,因为其之前达成的共识是利率将削减25个基点。英镑出乎意料地飙升至1.3475,本文撰稿当天,英镑兑美元汇率收盘上涨约1%。英格兰银行明确表示,将在八月召开的下一次会议采取行动,无疑全民公投后进一步发布的相关数据促使其作出这一决定。至于央行是否会效仿欧洲央行增购企业债券?让我们拭目以待。

而世界其他地方也令人叹为观止——史上第一张10年期负收益率基准国债发行了!其实更令人瞠目结舌的是,本周早些时候,史上第一家非金融公司德国联邦铁路刚刚发行了史上第一张负收益欧元债券。该Aa1级/  AA级5年期3.5亿欧元债券(最初以2.5亿欧元上市)以0%的优惠和-0.006%收益率投放市场;然而发行效果却好得令人称奇。如果收益率继续下跌,持有此债券的投资者无疑将受益于资本收益,而这将抵消利息成本;但是无论收益率止跌或回升,头疼的事都会随之而来。在斯特拉顿街,我们的投资组合方案内没有任何负收益债券;我们更期望挑选的债券必须有充足的利差缓冲。目前德国联邦铁路发行债券交易高于国债50个基点,同样的,我们的专有相对价值模型显示,5年期债券的交易刚刚超过70个基点。这表明,债券变得“昂贵”了。

我们宁愿考虑购买像阿布扎比国家能源公司(为阿布扎比主权财富控股公司)这样的公司最新发行的债券。4.375%的2026债券(A3评级)收益率较美国烟草公司高出约

290个基点。发行才不到一个月,该债券就表现得十分抢眼,获得近9点,收窄超过100个基点,目前的交易收益率高达3.4%。目前该债券的缓冲利差维持在50个基点左右,但随着债券逐渐接近公允价值,我们将逐步减持该券,另寻更具优势的券种

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