每日更新 - 美联储,利差,投资组合 - Fed, spreads, portfolio positions

夏季市场仍然伴随着我们,但关注重点转移到周五的美国非农就业数据(NFP)发布; 因为现在耶伦对杰克逊·霍尔的证词已被我们抛之脑后。继她在上周末发表评论后,市场对美联储下一步升息时机产生分歧。9月21日的下次会议宣布加息的可能性已经从英国退欧投票后的几乎为零上升至今天的36%,而在上周五下午美联储主席强硬评论后为42%。在周五非农就业数据发布之前,5位美联储成员进一步讨论什么会增加夏季流动性较差的市场的波动性。

UST市场已经开始定价,以期九月,5年期利益自7月底上涨15个基点,10年期利益上涨11个基点,长期债券上涨3个基点。普通读者都知道,与我们的管理同行不同,我们仍然支持持续较长时间再加息,由于UST曲线持续平缓,我们对评级较高者持有很大成见,而无论何时美联储实施紧缩政策。然而,斯特拉顿街的普遍看法是美联储加息越快,效果更佳。我们已经看到一些措施导致通货膨胀逐渐上升的迹象,所以美联储将先发制人,减少人们对其落后于时代的担忧。

继近几个月基金的积极表现之后,人们经常疑问我们期望基金在今年余下时期如何表现。正如我们的立场表明的,我们对期限较长的贷款仍然积极,并且由于其他主要市场目前缓解负收益率不利,我们认为美元债券收益率较高。我们的资信情况仍然为我们提供较USTs超过200个基点的平均价差,而我们的投资组合就相对价值模型(RVM)公允价值提供加权平均2.3等级信贷缓冲。上述资产是人们评级非常高的; 我们投资组合的加权信用评级为A2 / A3之间,这再次为我们提供了充足空间,可以在有机会的情况下下移信用曲线并承担进一步的信贷风险。

目前,我们认为利差既不低也不高,但考虑到投资过程中的风险奖励特征,我们认为我们对时间和信贷的立场是最正确的。在这个世界,随着我们或许进入比以前预期低得多的收益率时期,我们持续下降的持股仍然有收益,因此,我们认为我们仍有收益可获。任何波动都会给我们提供坚定立场的理由,但我们并不打算很快改变我们的整体策略,无论美联储是否实施紧缩政策抑或确实等待时机。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.