每日更新 - 美联储,对冲基金,IFO经济研究所 The Daily Update - Fed, Hedge funds, IFO

以10年期美国政府中期债券刚刚15个基点的现状衡量,8月是五年以来最平静的一个月。但随着本月仅剩五个交易日,这一切即将改变,因为美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦明天将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开年度研讨会。该研讨会自1978年由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办,据说,主席沃尔克选择研讨会地点是由于该地区特殊的飞蝇钓鱼。

今年市场目前加息的几率为50%,九月有28%加息的几率,因此每个人都积极关注耶伦的每一句话,试图获得美联储最新想法的进一步线索。随着美国耐用品采购经理人指数数据于今天发布,国内生产总值和个人消费数字明天明天发布,在月底前,我们可能会看到更多波动。

在其他地方,报告说,一些公司自2009年2月以来遭遇最大萧条,损失$252亿,从而今年总损失额为$559亿,因而可能会关闭对冲基金。在一个收取2%左右费用,取得20%左右利润的行业,这并不令人感到惊讶。事实上,大多数提款面向表现不佳的基金,流入资金今年重返7%以上。对冲基金业据说管理$27亿资金,所以提款额是整个行业的一小部分; 但需要监察这些现金流量从而了解投资者意图。

虽然重点可能是美联储,德国今天上午的8月份IFO指数最新数据,可能会引起欧洲央行担忧,因为指数自2012年5月以来下跌幅度最大,达到二月以来的最低点。这一下降对市场而言猝不及防,因为其之前预测小幅度上涨。这反映出德国高管对英国退欧的担忧,他们视英国为第三大出口市场。据德国采购经理人的进一步调查,制造业在八月减弱,服务行业自15个月以来表现最弱。

这可能是欧洲普遍走软的开始,因为指标开始反映欧洲公司进入英国进行贸易的前景。

以上仅供提示,祝你今晚愉快。

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