每日更新 - 英国央行/优步 The Daily Update - Bank of England / Uber

周四,英国央行将公布利率决定,并且似乎货币政策委员会(MPC)越来越有可能7年多来第一次降息。该委员会已经暗示,利率将极有可能在在上次会议上出人意料地保持不变后进行削减。Gertjan Vlieghe,作为货币政策委员会外部成员,是上个月呼吁削减的唯一决策者,而现在呼吁一揽子经济刺激措施促进经济增长。

在6月的会议前,外汇掉期市场已经确定降息80%,所以该情况没有发生令人措手不及。但是今天的定价表明,他们现在认为削减利率有100%的几率。任何降息当然会施压英镑。一些经济学家预测,英镑将于今年年底贬值至兑美元$ 1.20。摩根士丹利经济学家也表达了对英镑/欧元的看法。“英镑将响应通胀报告的进一步评论,并且如果英国央行进一步采取宽松政策,如量化宽松政策,英镑将会削弱,甚至削减利率至10个基点下限以下”。 摩根士丹利对英镑/欧元的预期是1.11,补充说“英国债券收益率比欧元区越高,意味着英国债券收益率继续下跌,符合长期欧元兑英镑交易”。

另外,今天上午新闻公布称北京小桔科技有限公司开发的打车应用程序滴滴出行,在300个城市有1亿多用户,将与中国优步合并; 这笔交易价值超过350亿美元。根据该交易知情者,交易双方几经波折试图获得市场份额,在中国政府发出全球范围内蓬勃发展的打车行业指南和框架后将联手合作,从而消除优步和滴滴出行的大部分不确定性。优步将出售其中国业务给滴滴出行,此外,滴滴出行将投资10亿美元给优步,从而帮助优步继续中国以外的全球扩张。

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