每日更新 - 英国央行难题 The Daily Update - BoE conundrum

英国央行可能明天公布近代史以来最重要的决策之一,因为期货市场有100%的几率削减利率;达到有史以来的最低水平。英国退欧恶化了英国基本经济因素;企业信心现在接近金融危机前的水平,制造业七月以三年内最快速度萎缩,建造业也迅速收缩。毫无疑问,央行预计将在未来几年英国增长减慢,通胀增加。事实上,国际货币基金组织下调英国2016年、2017年经济增长预测分别至1.7%、1.3%。但有趣的是,尽管存在大规模降级,国际货币基金组织仍预计英国经济增长速度高于诸如德国和法国。

自2009年3月以来,英国央行一直维持利率在0.5%的低点,利率无论减少0.25%或至零,将导致这个岛国的利率十年来第一次低于美国。持续时间最长的英国/美国利率下跌发生在1980年11月和1984年9月之间,其中英镑兑美元汇率大幅下跌了49%!英镑从公投前的高点已经下跌了10%(在撰写本文时),我们预计英镑在利率削减的情况下会再度面临压力。任何人都猜测英镑将下跌多少幅度,但明天的会议一些迹象显示市场将如何反应取决于央行如何积极实施宽松政策(在利率和量化宽松政策方面); 政策立场越积极,货币面临越大下行压力。我们在这个时候能做出最佳猜测是,英镑价值已经能平衡目前的风险,但在不久的将来其面临下行压力确实多于上行压力。

由于企业投资、雇用和消费支出冲击,我们预计英国经济将短期处于弱势。我们关注的主要重点在于英国和欧盟之间的自由贸易谈判将如何展开。例如,在瑞士,自由贸易与行动自由紧紧相联;对英国,人口是一个重要因素,因为移民是引起英国退欧的主要原因。

斯特拉顿街通过养老金和牌投资公司而为英国所知。利息5.5%2023到期的债券发行评级为Baa1 / A,交易价差超过英国国债〜330个基点,非常有吸引力。我们专有的相对价值模型计算出债券交易应超过135个基点,这意味着其目前信用等级为4.5;从而足以补偿任何的下行风险。而7年期国债以负0.4%利息交易,其将继续提供约4%的极具吸引力的收益率。

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