每日更新 - 日本央行和不确定性 The Daily Update - BoJ and uncertainty

持续疲软的增长仍是全球投资者面临的问题。日本正试图扭转负结构性趋势(人口老龄化、缺乏移民、长期停滞和需要更大规模的结构性改革),实施非常规政策已经很久了, 从而毫不奇怪引起了很多关注。人们更多的疑问是是否日本已经至于面临不能清偿的呆账,尤其是本·伯南克最近访问东京之后。

尽管日本经济增长持续萎靡,7月通胀数据仍然为负同比-0.4%),日本央行行长黑田东彦选择温和措施,基础货币每年增加80万亿日元,负比率保持-0.1%不变,上市交易基金从3.3万亿日元增加值6万亿日元,美元借贷机制从120亿美元增加至240亿美元。目前,日本央行行长黑田东彦似乎已经排除了不能清偿的呆账,以及央行推动货币政策以及政府和议会决定的财政政策之间的体制界限的模糊。据说他今天说:“我根本不认为量化宽松政策或我们的利率政策已经达到了极限”, 这意味着还有更多。

本周早些时候宣布的28万亿日元(2650亿美元,占国内生产总值〜5.6%)的财政刺激方案也让日本央行有时间来评估其政策。尽管对部分市场而言,这是一个错失的机会,由此日本国债抛售,日元升值至兑美元〜10.31(在攥写本文的时候)。预计下周会知道该经济刺激计划的细节,而现在的关键问题是多少头条数字是新支出,这将导致什么时间安排。

然而,鉴于日本央行拥有〜37.4%日本国债市场并似乎在流动性方面出现了一些制约,日本央行是否已经达到日本国债最大极限的问题仍然备受争议。虽然收益率曲线变成负增长,减少了政府证券发行/再融资的成本,更多的是这已经影响银行盈利,而不是促进贷款增长(同比增长2%,不包括六月信托)或貌似鼓励国内消费。

其他方面,如我们上周所强调的,由于英国退欧感知的负面影响,国际货币基金组织已经下调了经济增长预期:其估计英国2017年会有更大下调,削减0.9%至1.3%。有趣的是,关于英国投资项目,本周的消息或许带来投资打击可能不会像最初那样令人担忧的一线希望。葛兰素史克公司本周宣布,鉴于英国技术人员资源和有吸引力的税收制度,他们已经决定在英国退欧后进行2.75亿英镑的3个药物制造基地投资项目。此外,尽管政府将再次审查项目,法国电力公司董事会上周四批准了欣克利点核电项目的最终投资决定。明确的是,任何英国增长和投资预测现在伴随很多告诫和低置信水平。

英国退欧、欧洲民粹政治的崛起、美国大选和非常规货币政策都给全球市场带来很大的不确定性,使得债权人高品质债券,特别是那些正收益债券,变得更吸引人。

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