每日更新 - 欧洲银行 The Daily Update - European banks

欧洲银行股票一直面临压力:起因是欧洲银行压力测试涵盖代表〜70%银行体系的51家银行,却排除实力最弱的希腊和葡萄牙银行。评论家指出该压力测试效力低于六月对美国银行进行的压力测试,测试结果凸显了亏损吸收股权资本薄弱的银行。测试分析的51家银行中,49家2018年一级普通股本资本在6%以上:加权平均一级普通股本资本在2015年底增长至13.2%,较2014年增长了200个基点。

正如人们预料的,意大利西亚那银行继过去2年接受2次国家救援计划及额外€80亿资金援助后,面临压力亏损所有资本(如果不利情景继续,至2018年底,其一级普通股本将跌至-2.44%)。幸运的是,继该宣告后,其实施坏账销售(€92亿,占贷款“票面价值亿€277的33%)和€50亿资本重组计划(配售新股),且由于不使用公共资金,可以避免债券股东自救具有争议的问题。

在意大利银行业面临巨大困难之前,我们已经有所预测:据估计,意大利的不良贷款(NPLs)为€3600亿或贷款总额的〜18%和国内生产总值的〜22%,而‘苦难’ 或严重拖欠不良贷款接近€2000亿。净准备金提取估计该数字接近€850亿。意大利银行面临的问题之一是高水平的零售所有权。国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计,零售投资者拥有€6000亿债券的〜1/3,及次级银行债券〜1/2。根据新欧盟规则,次级债务在接受国家援助之前必须转换成股权,并且如果银行面临国家央行或欧洲央行最终决议,那么高级银行债券也会受到损失。继英国退欧后,意大利政府一直试图请求欧盟在规则方面从宽一些,以便重组银行资本。

一些银行存在资本重组的忧虑和疲弱的业绩,导致诸如意大利联合信贷银行的股票价格面临压力,因为投资者担心类似于意大利西亚那银行的不良贷款减值将构成融资活动需求:意大利媒体报道,意大利联合信贷银行可能会考虑集资€70-80亿。资本筹集、负利率和银行收益缓慢增长现状对面临救市风险的银行资本结构和债券权益构成突出负面影响。但提高资本比率,流动性缓冲和资产负债表减低风险的压力会带来积极信用。因此,欧元银行优先无抵押信用在过去12个月普遍跑赢股票,同时欧元银行债券基准优先无抵押利差普遍跑赢排名较低的其他1级资本。

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