每日更新 - 美联储委员会 The Daily Update - FED Committee

上周末美联储副主席斯坦利·费希尔暗示,美联储基金利率加息很可能今年势在必行。他认为尽管面临全球不确定性,美国经济会继续增长,并接近美联储预定的目标。在科罗拉多州阿斯本研究所的一次演讲中,他说:“展望未来,我预计国内生产总值将在未来几个季度回升,因为投资会从极其薄弱的经济计划复苏,走出美元升值疲软的阴霾,”他补充说,该委员会对经济指标持乐观态度。

过去几天以来,美联储委员会的几名其他成员也暗示,他们正接近启动加息计划。纽约联储主席杜德利在本周早些时候的一次采访中提及委员会“越来越接近” 适当提高利率的时机。与杜德利观点一样,洛克哈特发表讲话指出,“如果事实证明我对经济的信心是合理的,我认为今年晚些时候增加一次政策利率应该是合适的”。

然而,并非所有委员成员都对美国经济这么乐观。原鹰派成员布拉德(如今为鸽派成员)看不出利率变化的端倪,因为工人生产率上升速度不够快。美联储七月做出的维持利率不变的决定得到9-1投票支持。唯一投票支持利率立刻上升的成员是堪萨斯城联储主席以斯帖·乔治。

那么,市场如何解析升息的可能性?上周初始,期货市场定价的升息概率在9月份为16%,而在12月为42%。联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要在周三晚发布后,九月和十二月概率分别略上升20%和47%。今天上午,九月概率再次小幅上升至22%,而十二月概率超过51%。

 

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.