每日更新 - 联邦公开市场委员会/英国零销售 The Daily Update - FOMC/UK Retail sales

昨天晚上,联邦公开市场委员会7月会议记录公布。委员会成员普遍认为,美国在考虑加息前需要参考更多数据,但仍未确定何时采取进一步行动。委员会内部意见不一,主要划分为两大阵营——一些成员要确认通货膨胀在加息之前会朝着目标上升,目前还需要更多的证据;但其他人则担心低利率可能对金融稳定造成负面影响,称长时间维持极低的利率可能会导致投资者错误定价,从而导致金融市场的不稳定。

詹姆斯布拉德主张继续在可预见的未来大幅加息,尽管其承认风险可能存在上升态势,但是,他仍然认为在环境改变之前,63个基点的目标收益率合情合理。在会后举行的问答环节,他表示不确定9月或今年晚些时候是否是加息的最佳时机,但希望等到国内生产总值有增长的迹象之后再调整利率。美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦的顾问威廉杜德利补充说:“我认为我们正在逐步接近提高利率的时机,尽管空间不大。但这是个好消息。”

在会后的新闻发布会上,纪要指出,“考虑到他们对经济前景的看法不一,与会者讨论了需要采取进一步措施取消适应性货币政策的条件。随着通胀率持续维持在委员会既定的2%目标水平之下,众多人士认为理性的做法是该等待更多信息,从而评价经济活动、劳动力市场背后的基本运作机制,以及判断通胀是否会继续逐步上升至2%预期”。诸多人士认为,如果通货膨胀速度快于他们目前的预期,委员会很可能有充足的时间作出反应,并表示他们更希望推迟联邦基金利率再次上涨,直到他们更加确信通胀持续接近2%。此外,尽管短期内下行风险在间歇期降低,一些与会者强调,委员会需要考虑短期利率有效邻近下界相关的货币政策行为面临的约束。这些与会者得出结论,即委员会应该在对经济活动数据更有信心,认为经济增长足以承受下行需求震荡后,再采取进一步措施取消适应性货币政策。

声明的最后一句话很有意思。随着通货膨胀率逐步接近2%的目标,联邦公开市场委员会委员现在看来不仅希望看到经济持续增长,而且需要有足够的信心,认识到美国经济足够强大,具有足够的动力来承受“潜在的需求下行震荡”。

与此同时,今早报道的英国七月零售销售增长态势令人感到惊讶。市场预期是月增长0.3%,但零售销售为+  1.5%,超出市场预期并从6月份的-0.9%反弹。其较去年同期增长高出+ 5.4%,再次超出+ 3.9%的市场预期。根据国家统计局,该现象的一个主要因素是英镑的疲软;海外买家的时装和珠宝消费增加。显然,常言道“一燕不成夏”,因此这些数字应该谨慎看待,我们将持续关注未来几个月内英国退欧对英国经济产生的影响。

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