每日更新 - 国际货币基金组织对中国持谨慎乐观态度 The Daily Update - IMF cautiously optimistic on China

'审慎乐观'似乎仍然是国际货币基金组织(IMF)对中国经济可持续增长路径改革所持的总体态度。通常情况下,国际货币基金组织每年会与其成员根据第四条进行双边讨论。上周五,其讨论后发布了本123页报告,内容涵盖了改革、忧虑、期望和建议-报告总结了正在进行中的顶级对话和五月至六月进行的为期三个半星期激烈的讨论。

分析持续了去年报告对继续改革和政策的积极态度,支持点是几十年的经济增长使约6亿人摆脱了贫困。然而,最新的报告说明了过去12个月以来更明显的障碍,这已经妨碍关键结构性改革的执行,减缓了其进展,例如国有企业的预算约束和过高企业负债水平。同时,分析赞同中国“在很多领域结构改革所取得的令人印象深刻的进展,特别是利率市场化、人民币国际化、城市化...和经济再平衡。”讨论进行以来,重要改革继续进行,例如上周成立了专门的破产法庭以促进企业重组。此外,在仅仅六周后,中国人民币将纳入特别提款权,通过中国银行间债券市场(CIBM)发行20亿美元特别提款权计价债券-这可能意味着私人特别提款权计价证券需求再起。

该报告详细列举了一些可信的担忧、国际货币基金组织的建议、中国政府意见(继续进一步乐观)以及国际货币基金组织对数据的代理计算,例如“增强”的债务和财政平衡数据,其中包括了预算外借款(通常地方政府)和土地销售的有效估计。除了企业债券和国有企业改革,高风险理财产品和房地产带来的金融冲击–比如较小(3线和4线)城市未售出库存达三年左右的销售额-都是需要监测的其他重要风险。

短期内,国际货币基金组织(IMF)的基线情景依然温和,但随着国内生产总值增长在未来5年内持稳在6%左右(在上次审查中为6-6.5%),在中期会更弱。“鉴于中国的改革业绩和其领导人的坚定决心,国际货币基金组织相信,中国将奋起应付未来的挑战”,“过渡到可持续的、强大的、具有包容性、绿色增长”。在这样的增长水平下,中国应该继续成为全球经济增长的驱动力,但鉴于整个主要发达国家和新兴市场的停滞和不确定性,我们认为全球经济增长很快经历强劲回升没有很大的可能性。

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