每日更新 - 日本及其经济增长 The Daily Update - Japan and growth

英国央行行长马克·卡尼明确自己断然拒绝使用负利率政策工具以来,负利率产生的影响是一个备受争论的话题:“我不支持负利率。众人已知其在其他金融体系带来的后果。如果需要更多的方法刺激经济的话,我们还有其他的选择,所以我们并不需要选择负利率。”对他而言,“有效下界为正数,接近于零。”

日本央行在今年早些时候尝试实施负利率,但承认众人对其对银行盈利能力的影响沸沸扬扬,并且该政策工具进一步不利强化了日元,因此近日缓和了该政策工具的使用。更令人看好的是通过增加交易型开放式指数基金购买,温和增强量化宽松政策。与此同时,政府宣布实施进一步刺激计划。正如可提出证据加以证明的,新一轮经济刺激包仅仅是提供更多相同的措施,有可能不见效,仅仅短暂推动经济增长。鉴于政策迄今未能带来可持续增长复苏,最近,国际货币基金组织一直拥护“第四箭”,鼓励提高工资政策,提倡需求推动型经济增长。第二季度国内生产总值从第一季度的2%降到只有0.2%的年率,因此其他可供选择的政策可能效果更好。

日本的工资增长是否会刺激经济增长呢?除非日本其他主要贸易伙伴采取类似的方法,或者除非生产率抵消任何负面影响,工资增长可能会降低日本的竞争力。目前还不清楚财富的转移将如何体现:一个工人可以享受更高的工资,但是这必须由企业利润支持,目前尚不清楚消费刺激增加的销售收入会抵消多少这种成本。如果结构性改革可以提高生产力,那么好处会更多。这就是说,日本面临人口老龄化的负面构造走向:欧盟的人口统计工作表明抚养比率(65岁及以上人口人数占劳动力人口(15-64岁)的百分比)预计将从2010年的35.1%上升到2050年的73.8%,这会造成相当大的逆风增长。

一个世界各国政府面临的挑战是在全球较高债务水平的同时,不仅经济增长平平,而且不平等增加。对于普通消费者而言,工资增长是信心和可自由支配开支增加的重要驱动力,但即使是在美国,自2007年以来,实际中等家庭收入一直下降。日本研究表明,不平等似乎比高管薪酬增加的其他地方更不明显,而后者比诸如美国这样的地方更不明显。皮凯蒂方法着重看1%的最高收入者个人收入总额(不包括资本收益),结果表明该数额在日本已趋于稳定(2008年占国家收入的9.5%,而2012年占9%)。尽管如此,国际货币基金组织注意到,在日本的全职工资自1995年以来增加了0.3%,所以随着经济复苏继续踌躇不定,这一数据有点令人惊讶。


所有这一切可以明确的是,世界各地的政策都日益尝试新方法,但迄今在拉动总需求方面收效甚微。经济前景仍然不明朗,然而利益的追寻继续进行:债权人的优质债券,特别是那些提供正收益的债券,依然被定位为更吸引人的目标。

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