每日更新 - 韩国评级升级和收益率下降 The Daily Update - Korea upgrade and falling yields

周一,标准普尔提高韩国长期信用评级一个等级至AA,理由是“韩国的稳健强劲增长纪录反映其经济繁荣。”该评级机构继续称赞韩国多元化的经济和由建设投资及私人消费驱动的“出众” 国内生产总值增长。尽管韩国评级升级与穆迪一致,市场对该消息反应非常积极,基准债券收益下跌5-10个基点。

标准普尔继续提升韩国一些商业和政策性银行和半主权机构评级,这反映机构的系统重要性,从而政府支持或“额外政府支持评级升级”的“高度”可能性。诸如国有企业韩国天然气2026到期利息2.25%(七月份发行)的债券收益率跌至2.23%,而且根据我们的相对价值模型,Aa2 / AA-债券以公允价值计量且没有信用保障。

韩国债券一直我们以前的最爱,但被我们相对高估了。我们倾向于持股像卡塔尔国际电信公司,卡塔尔电信2026到期利息3.75%(Aa3)的债券,其会带来6.5%左右的预期收益,3.3%的收益及3等等级信用。此外,普通读者应该会记得一次报道提到我们对阿布扎比国有国家能源公司2026年到期利息4.375%债券的看法。该债券自6月份发行以来一直表现较好,反弹8.75点,尽管接近公允价值时,我们对其不看好。该Aa2级债券回报超过任何类似的韩国债券。其实如果该债券与韩国天然气2026年到期债券以同一水平交易,我们的模型计算出该债券可以带来超过11点的资本收益!

西班牙收益率持续下降,其 10年期国债收益率昨天有史以来首次低于1%。欧洲央行全球范围内的资产购买计划和宽松货币政策无疑是对这样的债券伸出援助之手,其大部分令人避之不及;尤其是政治不稳定继续困扰该国。有趣的是,交易收益率在1%以上的10年期基准欧元区债券发行国有:葡萄牙,意大利,希腊和塞浦路斯,这一状况可能不至于令人嘲笑,但接近了!

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