每日更新 - 墨西哥石油公司 The Daily Update - Mexico Pemex

随着美国大选的进行,墨西哥已经陷入了股票交易型开放式指数基金卖空和墨西哥比索证券跌价的漩涡。信用违约保险市场对冲基金非常活跃,墨西哥债券失去保护。

这一现象出于对北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)未来的担忧,因为特朗普和克林顿的发言令人们对该协议未来未知。特朗普公开表明想要汇款,放弃北美自由贸易协定,而克林顿已经描述1994年签订的协定为“错误决定”。

你可能会问为什么要针对墨西哥?广义而言,墨西哥去年出口$ 3220亿商品和服务至美国和加拿大,几乎是接下来的13大贸易伙伴之和的近七倍,并且朗普总统有利于冲基金。一位联系人挖苦地建议我们; 购买墨西哥水泥生产商墨西哥水泥集团股票,这是避免特朗普和两国之间不和损失的唯一措施。

根据外国净资产计分制,尽管我们预测未来三年墨西哥评分会由于石油收入减少和不断增长的经常账户赤字而降低,墨西哥仍然是三星级国家。其经济自2013年起已经增长至$ 1.1万亿,但预计在今后一段时间有些疲软。

然而,像国有综合石油公司墨西哥国家石油公司(Pemex)发行的债券被S和P和惠誉评为BBB +,这确实出现了风险定价。墨西哥国家石油公司5.5%的债券2044到期,售价为90.20,收益为6.25%,比美国国债高出405个基点。“公允价值” 大约在211个基点,因此该债券交易信用等级为4,这意味着价格需提升29点才能达到公允价值。

作为风险管理者,我们必须计算我们的报酬是否足够承担风险,即使此刻看来未来可能不会像一些投资一样令人满意,但如果前景更安全,你会得到一样多报酬。对墨西哥石油公司而言,四信用等级确实为体面定价,并且经过了我们的仔细研究。

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