每日更新 - 微软债券发行,货币政策和美国就业 The Daily Update - Microsoft issue, monetary policy and US employment

通过利用历史低点的借贷成本优势,微软推出了历史上最大的企业债券交易之一;七批可转换债券价值197.5亿美元。这笔交易旨在资助其以260亿美元收购LinkedIn,由于投资者继续受收益驱动,该交易获得超过2.5倍的超额认购。例如,10年期可转换债券高出UST基准90个基点,达到2.24%。

该AAA级债券收益“诱人” 高于USTs,长期看来更为如此;收益如此之高以至于这笔交易一经公布,周一国债收益率从上周五以来多周的低点水平走高。微软是美国仅有的两个非金融公司,信用评级机构标准普尔评级为三A;另一家公司则是强生。

我们全球债券投资组合持有微软债券;2035到期利息4.2%的发行债券比同类债券超过100个基点,并提供超过3.4%的收益。由于该AAA级债券信贷等级超过5.5,我们对其仍然放心,该债券提供13.5%左右有吸引力的风险调整后预期收益。根据我们的专有模型,我们资本收益等同于〜16.5点。

由于美国经济数据继续喜忧参半,一些美联储成员在本周表达了对未来利率的指导意见。芝加哥联储主席埃文斯表示,“一次加息对今年而言可能是合适的”,但同时也担忧通胀仍然低于央行预期目标。亚特兰大洛克哈特说,他无法保证九月份的下次会议上不会加息,而纽约联储主席杜德利与美联储主席耶伦看法最一致,对此表现得很谨慎,着重指出国内和国外经济增长的较大下行压力。

在大西洋彼岸,英国央行今天下调官方利率25个基点(至0.25%),扩大现有的量化宽松计划600亿英镑,至4350亿英镑。继欧洲央行之后,央行增加100亿英镑企业债券购买额(分为未来六个月内完成),并宣布推出长期融资计划,从而为银行提供资金,鼓励银行转移“近银行利率”给企业和消费者。正如我们昨天所提到的,英国宽松政策是支撑增长和避免可怕的经济衰退所必要采取的措施。行长卡尼公开表示在即将举行的会议上将降低利率,尤其是他认为到今年年底,通货膨胀上升和经济增长会接近0%。在“卡尼政策”宣布后英镑兑美元大幅下跌1.7%,10年期金边债券下跌至历史低点,达到日内低点0.646%左右。

明天市场关注的焦点,将转移到所有重要美国非农就业数据发布。七月 ADP就业数据解读略超市场预期,预计增加17.9万个就业岗位。ADP即“自动数据处理” ,其低估了五月弱数据(虽然数据异常),高估六月数据,因而最近预测非农就业人口并不可靠。市场预期七月将增加18万个就业岗位,从而令失业率下降至4.8%。

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