每日更新 - 非农就业数据 The Daily Update - NFPR

今天的7月非农就业数据强于预期:新增工作岗位数为25.5万,而预计新增18万工作岗位。强劲的六月数据在28.7万工作岗位基础上上调至29.2万。2个月上调额达1.8万。失业率较上一个月持平,为4.9%,而劳动参与率微升至62.8%左右。平均每小时的收入按年增长2.6%,与前一个月预期保持一致。平均工作小时小幅走高至34.5。

在本次数据公布之前,人们只希望今年9月有18%的加息机会,并在今年年底前有37%的加息可能。预期似乎预见了今天强大的数据,目前市场在攥写本文时在九月有24%加息的机会,而2017年三月加息概率已增加至50.6%左右。

面对今年加息的更大可能性,期货不情愿定价,这可能反映了数据发布的混合性和全球经济不确定性的增加。例如,二季度国内生产总值弱于预期,年增长率仅为1.2%(预期增长率为2.5%),一季度增长率下调至0.8%,从而今年下上半年增长年率为1%。消费凸显强劲(+4.2%),但商业投资(-2.3%)、住宅投资(-6.1%)和库存调整(-1.2%)明显拖累经济增长。欲实现联邦公开市场委员会2%的目标增长,需要在下半年实现增长3%。此外,通胀前景依然温和:六月个人消费支出平减指数同比上升0.9%,核心读数年增长1.6%。

本周早些时候纽约联储主席威廉·达德利指出,“即使每月增加15万个工作岗位,也会逐步耗尽美国劳动力市场剩余劳动力。”不过,他同时指出,“美国经济增长前景的中期风险有些偏向负面”,“美国金融市场状况在某种程度上依赖于美国货币政策相对于国外货币政策的立场。如果国外经济前景恶化,这将导致外国施行更加宽松的一套货币政策,之后美元可能会升值......。在这种情况下,美国可能需要调整自己的货币政策路径。”他继续指出:“鉴于我们保持接近零下限利率,我也觉得风险是不对称的。因此,我们需要对紧缩货币政策风险采取更谨慎的态度,应超前预期,这好于为时已晚的替代风险。”

尽管今天就业数据强劲,我们预计美联储仍会保持“耐心”,并对紧缩利率采取渐进的方式。我们预计他们会保持'遥遥领先'的态势,而收益率曲线将继续持平,在时间加权的基础上,偏向长期定位。本周,英国央行位于最近降息央行之列,鉴于对英国退欧对经济增长负面影响的担忧,其将加大量化宽松政策力度。非常规货币政策给全球市场带来巨大不确定性,由于越来越多的债券以较低或负收益率交易,收益追求越来越难:债权人的优质债券,特别是那些提供正收益的债权人仍然更具有吸引力。

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