每日更新 - 并非所有政府债券都水平相等 The Daily Update - Not all government bonds were created equal

昨日英国央行(BOE)发现自己无力购买长期金边债券,因为投资者继续偏向各种发达国家政府债券。继英国央行决定削减英国基准利率,并扩大£600亿量化宽松计划后,最终只有投资者出价购买15年到期的£11.2亿金边债券,然而英国央行的既定目标是£11.7亿。出现该有效性不足的至少部分原因是夏季增加了更多的流动市场 -事实上,欧洲央行鉴于预期流动性在前几个月超买,但近期英国退欧后,扩张量化宽松政策别无选择。这种普遍的政府债券相对于需求的短缺似乎会对央行和投资者构成长期困扰。

美联储持有约20%的(联邦)政府债务,英国央行持有25%,日本央行持有超过30%的债务。即使最近启动的欧洲央行量化宽松政策也已经耗尽了15%的德国政府债务,并且这甚至没有考虑一些央行转向购买公司债务的情况。美国联邦公开市场委员会前委员纳拉亚纳·柯薛拉柯塔最近写道,“稀缺不仅涉及供应问题。在金融危机之后,居民和企业都要求更安全的资产,保护自己免受突如其来的经济衰退。同样,监管机构要求银行持有更多安全资产。”欧洲央行和日本央行(现在在一定程度上英国央行也是如此)继续执行激进的债券购买计划。“虽然美联储不再启动量化宽松政策,其继续持有其股票,并延期支付利息。而且,由于美国财政部已选择票据而不是债券进行经常账户赤字融资,国债应该会继续面临供应短缺。

这种通常安全资产短缺的自然结果当然是收益率保持低位;导致部分投资者转向预期低风险的其他证券,而其他投资者寻求信用曲线以下的收益率。随着德国和日本$12-13万亿负收益债务分别10年和15年到期,一些投资者涌向诸如西班牙和意大利这样国家的政府债券,其10年到期收益率分别不到1%和1%以上。相比于0%或更少的收益率,这似乎是有吸引力的 -但前提是如果它们确实是低风险投资。然而,在2012年欧洲危机期间,这两个国家的债务达到7%收益率,并且均有较高的政府和总体净外债。我们不认为它们是适当的低风险低收益的选择,而且相对于明显风险损失,其弥补太少。还是最好投资净债权国吧,它们能对你有所回报,并同时提供西班牙目前所提供收益率的多倍收益。

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