每日更新 - 生活保障养老金 The Daily Update - Pensions on life support

14世纪,养老产业形成时并非十分完善(当时黑死病蔓延),因为其缺乏国家人口萎缩的第一手经验,以及该状况给经济增长预期和养老金负债带来的不堪影响。未来50年,几乎所有发达国家和许多新兴国家将面临人口增长停滞和劳动力萎缩,这种现象是650年以来不曾出现的。全球人口应该会持续增长(据粗略估计,至2050年增加至97亿,至2100年增加至112亿)。但是,超过一半的人口增长将来自非洲,这意味着其10亿的人口到2100年可能翻三倍。同时人口萎缩的国家数量预计将达到100,几乎所有发达国家都包括在内。目前,25个国家有显著的人口长期下降趋势,比如美国和日本,而且要不是过去十年中移民,可能包括德国。这种移民现象显然在富裕国家中不太受欢迎; 非洲人口即将到来的增长热潮给诸如美国和欧盟带来的影响将显著减少,而过去东欧和亚洲移民推动经济增长。例如在过去三十年,超过80%进入美国的移民处于工作年龄(16-64)。

与所有的警告信号相反的是,大部分养老产业继续将繁荣时期的80和90年代数据纳入其当前和未来的预期回报(贴现率),希望永远高达6-8%。他们似乎肆无忌惮地忽略最近不断扩大的债务和人口萎缩趋势和经济减缓现象,尽管经济明显无法维持并接近崩溃边缘。在继续保持这种乐观态度的同时,他们被迫购买负收益率政府债券和/或高风险资产。

一个具有说明性的臭名昭著的例子是加州公务员退休基金;加州公务员退休基金是美国最大的公共养老基金,管理超过160万人的养老金,数额达$ 3000亿。即使幻想保持7.5%的折扣率(预期),其30%仍然资金不足。尽管其保持乐观,其2014 - 15年业绩持平,在去年至6月底亏损$ 80亿。所有公共和私人福利养老金基金普遍显现这种反差。但固定缴款不会消除风险。因为如果经济增长仍然疲弱那么这样的计划肯定无法满足需求 –这要求国家福利增加福利开支,构建贫困老人安全保障。

债务存在各种形式;对于国家而言,运用国外净资产净额分析评估当前公众,企业和家庭债务极其重要。近年来,可以看到,外币负债激增并在私人和公共资产负债表之间转让。

然而,未来的养老金债务脆弱性将以指数形式增加,从而带来不利影响,正如巴菲特在1975年信中就其潜在风险的极好恰当概述。由于国家经济增长放缓和人口老龄化,预期收益,到某些国家的最后薪资,到预期寿命都会面临风险。在这些国家,政府可能会寻求提高工资水平,如日本推动第四箭计划。哈佛商业评论援引人口统计学教授詹姆斯沃佩尔的估计,认为在美国、英国、德国、法国、意大利、加拿大和日本,2007年以后出生的婴儿中,50%寿命会达到104或以上。更不要说如今生物技术的跨越式运用,比如在DNA染色体终端运用CRISPR/Cas9技术从而达到潜在延长寿命的目的(如果你还没有听说过这种技术,值得查阅资料)。我们有理由相信预期寿命会从14世纪三十五岁左右到如今的七十多岁,而且在未来数十年会继续上升。

在这个不平等的世界,会计师和投资者仍然低估债务从现在不良状况膨胀的潜在风险,这是显而易见的。这就是为什么在一个对过去债务充满期望,人口推动80,90年代经济发展的世界,我们倡导去杠杆化,避免负债累累状况的投资理念。我们看好不会面临这种显著风险的债权国和公司,尽管受债务拖累,它们同时保持现实却诱人的收益率。

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