每日更新 - 欧洲 - 斯蒂格利茨 The Daily Update - Stiglitz

我们之前说过把债权国和债务国联合成没有财政联盟的欧式货币联盟不会有什么意义。有趣的是,这一观点得到了诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨的响应,他在新书《欧元:共同货币如何威胁欧洲的未来》中指出欧元是自2008年以来欧元区经济表现不佳的关键因素。斯蒂格利茨的观点吸引了人们的关注,这是因为他在上世纪90年代总统比尔·克林顿执政期间扮演顾问角色,并且是在国际货币基金组织政策往往造成经济衰退和萧条时期,其姊妹机构世界银行的首席经济学家:萧条是一个值得商榷的失败问题,但不可思议的相似之处在于其与希腊和其他欧洲受挫国家政策相仿。

在斯蒂格利茨看来,目前欧元结构构思拙劣,缺乏适当的机构实现有效运行。目前的结构将19名成员国固定在一个汇率,即欧洲央行目标通胀率,与严格的“趋同标准”形成对立,并触发预算调整(3%的预算赤字和国内生产总值60%的债务),从而导致在经济低迷时期,紧缩和结构改革成为主要调节杠杆。2008年的全球金融危机引起这样一种不对称冲击并暴露这一弱点。财政政策是一个重要的经济稳定器,但在当前体制下没有得到充分利用。现有结构助长了不平衡和不平等,而不是通过促进经济增长,就业和稳定使欧洲更加紧密。其对立债权人和债务人,采用紧缩政策,从而导致经济收缩,需要债务重组。

斯蒂格利茨不满于应对政策过于专注财政紧缩的做法,其有时考虑不周却实施结构性改革,结果加剧经济衰退。在他看来,欧元更切实可行需要更有效的财政再分配机制以及存款保险银行联盟。他主张取消对政府赤字的限制,从而令经济周期“平滑过渡”。欧洲还需要采取更多措施从而鼓励增长,就业和稳定,给更多的成员国带来繁荣,这样才能实现蓬勃发展。他还讨论了其他不怎么有效的选择:友好脱离和双速欧元。因为随着人们日益支持民粹政治,经济增长继续疲软,这些问题正变得日益紧迫,即使在欧元区核心国家如意大利和法国也是如此。

公平而言,欧洲已经在2015年五位总统报告认识到变革的必要性,从而实现一个“更深入和更公平”的货币联盟:这要求建立在单一银行监管基础上的欧洲存款保险计划和单个解决机制和基金。要实现有效货币联盟,需要有更大的财政联盟:报告主张未来建立欧元区国库并使用通用的宏观经济稳定基金,以便可以更好地管理经济冲击。实现更大的财政统一,需要在欧洲范围的基础上实现更大的预算聚合:我们注意到1977年麦克杜格尔报告建议在预联邦欧洲基础上为2-2.5%的国内生产总值,而在后一阶段为5-7%,而如果欧盟要成为像美国这样的一个完整联邦,需要再达到25%。目前,欧盟预算相当于国内生产总值的〜1%,因此还需要进一步努力。相比之下,2012年克鲁格曼的博客指出为应对2008年经济衰退,尤为受挫的佛罗里达州从华盛顿收到$ 310亿多总额,超过该州国内生产总值的4%,这相当于一次年均转移,但不是贷款。就目前来看,这种规模的援助是在欧洲是不可想象的。希腊危机凸显了德国的观点,即欧洲不是一个'转移联盟',不可避免比美国联合更'弱'。批准国家预算和监督责任履行的其他一些机构,包括已经到位的,对财政一体化加深而言变得越来越重要。

欧元使全球金融危机后欧洲的调整过程变得复杂,其面临着世界许多国家共同的挑战:升高的债务水平,不断加剧的不平等,人口老龄化,长期停滞和越来越多过度依赖受人质疑的新自由主义政策。这些结构性挑战和“日趋相同的” 政策无法预测全球经济增长是否只会进一步疲软,并暗示人们进一步追寻利益。积极收益率的债权国信贷将继续抢手。

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