每日更新 - 人民币的旅程 The Daily Update - The Renminbi's journey

昨天是中国人民银行宣布在岸人民币(RMB)固定机制改革一周年;改革期间,大量货币“一次性”贬值。这导致巨大的市场恐慌,一些人认为汇率政策的变化旨在增强出口竞争力。然而,我们认为,央行的动机更多与国际货币基金组织是否将货币纳入特别提款权篮子的决定有关;国际货币基金组织对中国外汇政策的批评之一是,汇率不受市场力量驱动。

一年以来,人民币汇率政策已经取得很大进展;中国人民银行似乎已经松缓了对人民币的严格控制,使其更加以市场为导向,更具有透明度。这方面措施包括宣布资本账户自由化规则(纳入特别提款权的另一重要变化),引入中国外汇交易中心篮,中国银行间债券市场(CIBM)向合格境外投资者开放,以及更多“基于规则”, “关闭+篮子”等固定规则。

今年也是中国打破长达十年的钉住美元汇率政策后第11年,从而人民币从8.2升值到如今的6.65;该升值上期增长19%左右,或每年1.7%。

进一步展望,日元已经按计划进行了11年,非常引人注目。从1975年底至1986年年底,日元兑美元反弹48%左右,或每年4.3%。当然,日元现在视为“避风港”的货币之一,但早在当时,它与今天的人民币并非大相径庭。其贸易流量经济数额当时相当大,而日本的出口高速增长。我们想知道当时人民币在全球经济和需求增长的情况下会采取何种政策。

在我们看来,中国在放松管制和开放国内市场的时机把控上有点令人可惜。日本似乎很会把握时机,即使其在过去二十年不得不补偿给全球平台带来的不利影响。我们仍然认为中国货币在未来几年将继续升值,但正如我们已经看到的,会比反复无常的日本更加可控地进行。

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