每日更新 - 财政刺激之路 The Daily Update - The road to fiscal stimulus

如果要问是什么令金融市场在这个夏天相对平静,引人注目的唯一事项是财政政策使用加大;无论是与货币政策联合使用,还是替代使用率迅速减少的货币政策均为如此。

英国央行可以作为一个经典案例。面对英国退欧,英国央行选择降低利率至历史最低0.25%,同时通过发行£600亿英国国债和£100亿公司债券扩大量化宽松计划。这一举措在别人看来更为先发制人而并非被动之选(虽然稍晚于最初建议的实施时间)。并且虽然言之过早,经济数据公布以来其意外走高。

英国退欧无疑将对英国经济产生负面影响,但无从知晓情况会有多糟,会持续多久。因此,当务之急的是,政策制定者应在步日本央行和欧洲央行后尘之前,务必了解情况的复杂性;实际上,他们继续印制货币,进一步走向负比率,希望能刺激经济增长,拉动接近负水平的通货膨胀。纵观经济数据,此举显然是行不通的。英国央行行长卡尼坚称他不支持负利率,并且其他选择零下利率的央行“有点不对劲”, 称我们需要知道其他可靠选择。

在金融危机时期,削减利率是一个不错的选择,而巨额债务是一个难题;该问题指向家庭,企业,甚至是外债。低利率意味着更少的违约、银行储蓄,因而也意味着更广泛的全球经济;而这是否是最好的选择,抑或受控利率会导致某些大型违约发生不是当前需要讨论的问题。现在,政策制定者面临全球经济增长接近停滞的情况,因此需要采取不同的举措。

最明显的良药,将是英国政府组合英国央行货币政策和针对公共部门的财政支出,并且有可能的话,削减公司所得税。据国家统计局数据,英国公投退欧后,基础设施支出大幅削减。然而,首相特雷莎·梅已经承诺增加基础设施开支并发行基础设施债券。实际上,根据今日新闻报道,特雷莎·梅和财政大臣哈蒙德可能会在接下来的财政年度借贷£500亿,用于基础设施建设支出,还好借贷利率历史最低;果然是一个双赢的局面!

同时,与其他主要经济体相比,中国财政赤字比较小。我们听说中国央行正在考虑增加3%财政赤字至5%以刺激经济增长。中央银行的一位分析师盛松骋指出,尽管降息和减税有助于刺激经济增长,然而“下降利率,甚至是负利率,可能不会吸引投资,”此外,公司所得税削减“是一项紧迫的政策,需要我们积极落实”。 随着政策强度加大,中国有空间和范围管理经济增长,然而这一评论并不适用于其他大银行。

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