每日更新 - 美国联邦储备理事会(FED)/温斯顿·邱吉尔(Winston Churchill)爵士 The Daily Update - FED / Sir Winston Churchill

昨晚美联储理事(Fed Governor)莱尔•布瑞拉德(Lael Brainard)向所有过快的加息举动提出警告,她表示对美国经济的担心依然存在,而全球经济疲软会加大美国(US)压力。在芝加哥全球事务委员会(The Chicago Council on Global Affairs)演讲时,她强调了通胀担忧和全球的不确定性,表示就此“建议在去除宽松政策方面要保持审慎态度。”她还补充说:“相信最近几个月这种做法让我们很受用,有助于继续增加就业机会和缓解通胀压力。”

说到全球经济,布瑞拉德(Brainard)专门提到了新兴市场地区,她表示“新兴市场经济同样表现出了下行风险,近几年这些地区的经济增长大幅放缓,”并补充“最为重要的是,中国在经历转型,从投资、出口、债务刺激增长的模式,转变为消费、服务、动态私人企业刺激增长的模式。转型是有代价的,外加人口趋势,中国经济可能会继续放缓。”

令人感兴趣的是,她提到了美国联邦储备理事会(FED)的新“中性利率”,相信会比美国联邦储备理事会(FED)之前预期的低,她说“现在似乎越来越清晰,也许未来货币政策最突出的特点是中性利率将持久、显著地比金融危机之前低。”她还补充说“为调和这些发展,很容易做出以下结论:那就是现在和10年前同样的联邦基金利率水平相比较,现在的政策相对不那么宽松。”

她的这些讲话影响到了所有加息的市场预期。在周五,9月份加息的预期概率为30%;截止本文撰写时,此概率已经降至22%; 12月份的加息预期概率已经从周五的60%降至57%。

今天的新闻还有英国开始发行新版5英镑(£5)纸币,新版纸币比现在流通的纸币小15%。新版纸币将有史以来第一次使用聚合物(塑料)制造,根据英格兰银行(Bank of England)的说法,之所以采用聚合物制造纸币,是因为这种纸币更清晰、更安全和更结实耐用。新版纸币正面印有英国女王(Queen)肖像;背面是温斯顿·邱吉尔(Winston Churchill)爵士,背景为威斯敏斯特宫(Palace of Westminster)(英国议会大厦)和大本钟(Big Ben)。大本钟(Big Ben)的指针指向3点钟,这个时间正是丘吉尔(Churchill)于1941年在英国下议院( House of Commons)发表演讲的时间,他那句“除了鲜血、劳苦、眼泪和汗水之外,我无可奉献”的演讲词,流传至今。邱吉尔爵士(Sir Churchill)充满轶事趣闻的伦敦故居也在市场出售,叫价为2300万英镑,超过刚发行的44000万张新版“五英镑”纸币总面值的1%。

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