每日更新 - 英国退欧和勃鲁盖尔 The Daily Update - Brexit and Bruegel

英国退欧投票距今已有近10周。有趣的是,经济运行好于末日预言预期,至少在短期内如此。八月制造业采购经理人指数显示25年来最强的月度升幅,数据从5.1点上升至53.5点;这表明英国制造业受益于6月23日投票后的英镑下跌行情。近期房价数据迄今为止表现强劲,八月同比上涨5.6%,尽管我们也注意到其他方面的行情下跌导致房贷削弱。这一切缓和了英镑行情,但英镑兑美元下跌超过10%,兑欧元下跌超过9.5%。这一好于预期增长的情况是否可持续仍然有待商榷,因为其对投资的影响仍是一个未知数。但是,如果具有较强的法律体制和熟练劳动力,投资可能会更有弹性,这在英国财政部似乎倾向于减税的情况下更为如此:苹果的€130亿避税欧盟罚款表明欧洲采取相反方向的措施。

什么导致“英国退欧是认真的”最终无法解释。谈判进展将愈加复杂,就英国希望‘做出最佳选择’和英国削减公司税等问题,谈判方可能发生激烈争论。2016年3月,乔治·奥斯本立法规定在2020年将公司税降低至17%,说是公投结果认为公司税应进一步降低,而新总理菲利普·哈蒙德有望在今年年底澄清该策略具体情况。

勃鲁盖尔研究所作为为人高度评价的经济智库,于8月29日发布由吉恩·皮萨尼费里等人攥写的一份报告。在报告中,他们认为,任何现有安排都不利于英国,并建议沿大陆合作的思路思考问题:“作为对明显没有欧盟成员国牢固的欧盟-英国关系的新建议,这更接近于简单的自由贸易协定。”这可以提供与其他国家发展关系的依据,使欧洲形成一个超国家的欧元区核心区域和结构化政府间合作的外圈。他们认为,“如果他们缺乏未来较长期的共同愿景,英国和欧盟有可能卷入无原则的互相纠缠,即使进展缓慢,这也会削弱它们在世界上的地位。”

鉴于地理邻近且英国自1973年以来一直是欧盟的一部分,两者之间已经存在高度互联和利益共同性。勃鲁盖尔文章认为,欧洲是一个超国家的政治计划,但英国已明确拒绝了这一设想,主要原因之一是:行动自由性。他们认为发展合作的最好方式是建立密切合作的框架,同时建立“欧洲大陆伙伴关系”(CP),对劳动力流动施加一些限制。这旨在从高度一体化市场的意义上保持功能整合,该市场应没有关税,具有共同的规则和标准,共同执法和竞争以及共同预算。他们还设想“外交政策,安全,及可能的话,国防事务的紧密合作。”其目前尚未达到主张四大自由的罗马条约下的经济政治宪法要求;在这种情况下,只允许有限的“临时劳动力流动”,而不是完全自由流动。他们认为可行的方式是成立欧洲大陆伙伴关系委员会制定,谈判和讨论法规和政策草案,但立法仍然需要通过欧盟:实际上这是“欧盟成员国考虑欧洲大陆伙伴关系委员会立场和审议的政治-而非法律-承诺”。

在这种安排下,英国仍然可以进入市场,并限制移民,但会减少政治影响力,且需要支付预算换取市场准入。对于欧盟而言,这种关系运用共同体方式可以形成更有效的模式,同时增加政治稳定和合法性。这种模式可用于英国之外的成员国关系;例如,其将来可以应用于土耳其,正如勃鲁盖尔文章指出“可以说,一些欧盟成员国决不会接受土耳其加入欧盟的原因之一是自由流动性。”

在英国退欧之后,这样的安排一开始会让人觉得不可思议,但这种情况有点囚徒困境的感觉,因为双方采取强硬的方式一定会失利。

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