英国脱欧/英国商会/英国政府 The Daily Update - Brexit / British Chamber of Commerce / UK Government

今天上午英国商会(BCC)督促本国政府尽快落实其大型基础设施项目决策,以缓冲由英国脱欧投票造成的对未来几年英国经济急剧降低的预期的影响。英国做出脱欧决定后,英国商会(BCC)在首次更新中,将2016年国民生产总值(GDP)的增长预期从2.2%减少到1.8%;将2017年国民生产总值(GDP)的增长预期从2.3%减少到1%,缩减程度高达1.3%。2018年的预期也从2.4%减少到了1.8%。据英国商会(BCC)估计,这些向下修正意味着:英国(Britain)经济将比英国商会(BCC)在投票前作出的预期缩减将近440亿英镑。

英国商会(BCC)代理总干事亚当·马绍尔(Adam Marshall)在一次声明中说:“政府应该就此开始一系列被搁置许久的基建项目以提振商业-包括增建新机场跑道、建立新核电站和公路铁路修建计划。”然而值得注意的是:早在2000年,英国交通部(Department for Transport)就表明机场需要更大容量来应对预期翻倍的旅客数量,随着2003年关于希思罗(Heathrow)第三条机场跑道政府白皮书的发布,已经不建议如此暂停呼吸(搁置项目)!!

英国商会(BCC)首席经济学家苏伦·斯如(Suren Thiru)也对英国做出了担忧评估,当时他表示:“不断上涨的不确定性阻碍了投资的发展,而通胀上升和劳动力就业市场的适度疲软也将抑制消费者的支出。”不过他又补充道:“从积极的方面看,公投后英镑贬值,英国的净贸易地位预期会就此提高。”不管怎样,斯如(Thiru)同时相信出口企业很可能因英镑走低而有所收获。在声明结束时他表示:“在英国经济的长期前景因高度不确定性而面临下行风险的同时,诸如英国的经常账目赤字规模这些深深根植的结构性问题,可能会令其经济受到重创。”

根据报道,英国财政大臣(UK Chancellor of the Exchequer)菲利普·哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)在周末欧盟(European Union)财长会议上也表示:英国政府不会将企业所得税率调到17%以下。这一说法与前财政大臣(Chancellor)乔治·奥斯本(George Osborne)的主张形成鲜明对比。在英国脱欧公投之后的那段时间,乔治·奥斯本(George Osborne)表示将企业所得税降至15%有利于帮助英国减轻由脱欧造成的影响。英国目前的企业所得税率为20%,不过按照计划明年4月份将降至19%,到2020年降至17%。有传闻称:近几个月英国将爱尔兰共和国(Republic of Ireland)12.5%的企业所得税率作为长期承诺,以此说服公司企业继续留在英国、投资英国。

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