每日更新 - 美联储,日本央行 The Daily Update - Fed BoJ

今天市场相对平静,在日本央行明天早上的货币政策会议和晚上7点(伦敦时间)美联储联邦公开市场委员会会议召开之前,很少经济数据发布。

日本央行预计将大展身手,甚至可能再一次降低利率,而市场普遍预期美联储将继续袖手旁观,尽管其通过“点阵图”可以显示年底前采取措施的更大可能。在美联储首选的23家银行中,只有两家银行期望美联储在本次会议有所举动,而期货市场定价仅有20%加息的几率。

明天之后,有可能美联储不得不提高利率的时候是12月,因为其下次预定会议仅仅在11月总统大选前一个星期。虽然耶伦主席坚称所有会议是实况转播的,美联储临近选举所采取举措的政治影响使该会议在人看来仍然“袖手旁观”。

耶伦被奥巴马总统任命为美联储主席,同时也是1990年代克林顿总统的顶尖经济顾问。 “美联储正受政治控制,不会加息,而是正处于政治控制”,上周唐纳德·特朗普在纽约杂志说。作为回应,比尔的妻子希拉里反击特朗普的继续指责,“如果你要竞选总统或者已经是总统,你不应该对美联储的举措进行评论。”她这样说,事情就是这样。

同时,德意志银行股票战略家们提出美国经济在未来十二个月衰退至30%的可能性。他们写道,现在存在4个明确信号表明这更可能发生。首先,企业利润率在过去两年中一直在下降,其次,美联储的劳动力市场状况指数上个月转为负数,第三,资本开支增长呈现负值,最后,美国投机违约率达到5%以上。他们指出,在过去三十年中,只有一次出现所有这些状况而并没有导致经济衰退。那就是1986年,当时美联储由保罗·沃尔克担任主席,决定下降利率550个基点,美元下降40%以促进出口。

所以明天注定会值得关注。

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