每日更新 - 美联储 欧洲央行 量化宽松政策 The Daily Update - FED ECB QE

九月可以更名为“仙特拉过山车”,因为我们热切地等待着美联储和日本央行在本月21日,还有欧洲央行在下周四作出极其重要的决定。几乎所有观察家预期欧洲央行和日本央行会进一步实施经济刺激计划,而美联储可能进一步加息。是的,这一¼%已经吸引了我们太多关注,以至于我们产生“数据依赖”。

美联储是否确实加息与否的猜测将继续推进,但似乎人们的关注重点已经转移到欧洲央行的困境。人们普遍预计,欧洲央行将继续强化量化宽松政策(因为当前政策仅剩余六个月实施时间),不会以任何有意义的方式应对通胀,而预期的英国退欧冲击尚未显现。然而,这样看来,德拉吉总统和他的同仁们面临一个小问题。他们确实需要关注欧洲央行可以购买什么,他们需要放松他们自己强加的规则。

似乎四条主要规则可以进行修正。首先是改变发行和发行人限制。中央银行可持有的任何单一公共部门最大份额为33%,幸运的是,他们不需要遵循可转让证券集体投资计划5/10/40。第二个选项是放弃他们必须购买比存款利率更高国债的规则,目前利率为-0.40%,这会导致更大的损失?第三个选项是扩大新资产类别购买,可以考虑股票和交易型开放式指数基金,但也许会导致更大的经济泡沫。

但是,最后一个选项是令人惊讶的:改变资本键。正如读者会知道我们无关于基准,因为我们认为固定收益基准背后可能是负债最重的发行人,这种投资组合运行方式存在缺陷。欧洲央行正在考虑改变资本键,其根据经济规模控制每个国家的影响程度。目前,其政府债券为1万亿欧元,其中德国长期公债23.8亿欧元,法国可替代国债18.9亿欧元,意大利债券16.4亿欧元。通过改变资本键,他们将有能力购买更多更大的市场,如在发达世界债务最多的意大利。

但这对我们根本没有意义可言,因为它会给意大利债务完全不恰当的定价,并确如德国央行行长延斯·魏德曼所说,模糊财政政策和货币政策之间的界限。对负债累累的政府而言,建立一个虚假的市场可能会在后期产生重大问题,因为投资回收期可以放大国内已经面临的问题。此外,欧洲央行可能会由于政府赤字融资而遭指责,根据欧盟法律这属于非法融资,但大家都知道规则是可以人为改变的,尤其是在欧盟。

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