每日更新 - 失去基础?The Daily Update - Losing fundamentals?

随着央行本周如火如荼展开工作,我们回顾一下上周报道,其中我们提到,最有可能的情况是,日本央行日本国债曲线变陡,而美联储按兵不动。昨天所有的目光都集中在美联储,因为此前日本央行推出“收益曲线控制量化和质化货币宽松”, 10年期国债收益率控制在0%,从而曲线进一步变陡。也正如所料,美联储维持现状;等十二月再公开加息。

这次,联邦公开市场委员会有3位持不同政见者,即堪萨斯州的乔治,克里夫兰的美斯特和波士顿的罗森格伦(其由鸽子派转为鹰派); 美联储主席耶伦表示,联邦公开市场委员会成员“努力试图了解彼此的观点。”但补充说:“大多数与会者预计今年加息......将是合情合理的。”而且这个问题是时机的问题,而不是仅仅是加息的问题;消息公布后,十二月加息的市场可能性小幅上升至61.2%。前瞻性指导显示,美联储正在考虑明年小幅加息,可能加息两次。

美国就业市场强劲,8月份通胀数据令人满意到吃惊,尽管零售销售确实有所衰退。因此,有人可能会说,加息25个基点的可能性加强了,但似乎同时美联储可能希望紧缩,这关系到最终的全球市场动荡; 因为市场正继续抱怨央行,并已经失去基础。整整一个月,我们已经察觉这一端倪,因为美联储发言人提出异议而资产市场动荡不安。自美联储昨天宣布政策后,市场过度反应; 标准普尔到收盘时反弹超过1%,美元和美国国债收益率下跌,而黄金在两周内显示最强劲的反弹。联邦公开市场委员会委员继续提示紧缩的“渐进”路径,这也正是他们努力的方向,而一年紧缩25个基点肯定是渐进式的。

我们的投资组合控股已经受益于风险情绪,长远来看尤为如此。2040年到期利率6.4%的卡塔尔主权财富基金反弹两个百分点,仅次于历史最高点。控股继续提供极具吸引力的风险调整回报和〜17%的收益率,信用等级为4级。根据我们专有的相对价值模型,该债券仍然可以反弹20个百分点,从而达到公允价值。国有沙特电力(SECO)也增加了1个百分点,尽管其收益率紧缩15个基点,仍然保持了具有吸引力的5.05%。

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