每日更新 - 非农就业增长数据发布 The Daily Update - NFPR

八月因为市场高估就业增长而臭名昭著,过去五年来减少了11000至88,000个工作岗位;事实上仅增加1510 00个工作岗位,而市场期望为180,000个工作岗位。强劲的七月份数据显示工作岗位从255,000增至275,000,这2个月数据相差- 1000。失业率较上月持平在4.9%,而参与率持平于62.8%。平均每小时收入按年增长2.4%,略低于预期和前一个月数据。平均工作时间小幅下降至34.3。

数据发布之前,人们预计今年9月有34%加息的机会,今年年底有59.8%加息的概率。预期与今天发布的疲弱数据略有差距:在攥写本文的时候,市场定价在9月加息的可能是22%,而12月加息的概率也回落至54.9%。

对比增加18万个工作岗位的预期,今天的数据令人失望。但问题是美联储认为在市场双重目标的最大可持续就业和通货膨胀率在2%方面,怎样的就业增长水平可视为反映劳动力市场继续繁荣。美联储副主席斯坦利·费希尔在8月21日阿斯本讲话说道; “2016年至今,每月非农就业增长平均约185000 –虽然去年,该数据为23万,但其仍足以表明劳动力市场状况持续改善。每月就业增长估计需要保持失业率范围稳定,每月数据约为75,000至150,000元不等,具体取决于劳动力参与率的变化。”

不过,纽约联储主席杜德利指出‘鉴于利率接近零利率底限程度’, 调整政策太快会导致不对称风险。就目前数据来看,疲软的国内生产总值数据以及昨天的的8月制造业指数数据重新收缩,我们预计美联储可能会保持“耐心”, 并采取非常渐进的方式收紧利率。

我们认为,美联储将继续“引领潮流”,收益率曲线将继续持平,在时间加权的基础上,远期有利。自全球金融危机以来,美国经济增长不平衡,企业投资疲软,生产力增长令人失望,不平等差距加大,而通胀压力温和;最重要的是,负面的结构性趋势,人口老龄化以及长期性经济停滞导致利率低。在此背景下,人们会进一步在全球市场搜寻收益率:债权人的优质债券,特别是那些提供正收益率的债券,仍然更具有吸引力。

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