每日更新 - 欧佩克石油 The Daily Update - Oil Opec

今天上午的大消息,除去电讯报进一步指责足球的腐败现象则是欧佩克协议。(人们一直认为,由于没有球员转会,因此没有假期补贴,某些经理人不看好在英格兰工作,因而电讯报的这一调查发现并不令人惊讶。)现在令人关注的是欧佩克协议期限是否足够长,从而影响原油的长期价格。

离欧佩克最近一次同意削减产量已经有8年了。这一次,欧佩克同意微弱削减,从目前的每天3340万桶(MBD)到每天3250万至3300万桶,所以顶多削减3%,而布伦特上涨2.82美元至48.79美元;涨幅刚刚超过6%。

细节报道仍然粗略,但似乎沙特阿拉伯将每天削减35万桶左右,从而不需要其他成员削减产量即可以令欧佩克非常接近目标范围。过去这些协议失败在于卡特尔试图同意各个成员国的产量配额,因而任何协议是可以衡量而得到执行。人们认为,伊朗,尼日利亚和利比亚将在任何配额和执行范围之外;而伊朗清楚表示其将从目前的每天360万桶增加至400万桶。或许你认为我们持怀疑态度,但到目前为止,协议似乎是一个零和收益;一切都没有从根本上改变。

不过,沙特仅上任六个月的新石油部长哈立德·法力赫试图改变过去'随意开采’ 的策略; 我们认为这有益于未来的原油定价。据我们所知,在11月正式欧佩克会议召开之前,任何协议都不会得到执行,所以在任何配额要求下达之前,成员还有几个月时间增加产量。

沙特在过去两年中主导政策走向,即石油供给大于需求,而原油价格随之下跌被认为进一步造成了供应漏洞,因为较低的原油价格被认为造成新项目损失$1万亿,导致许多美国页岩公司走向破产。在人们看来,这描绘了欧佩克成员国长期更好的财务状况。然而在近期及中期来看,我们觉得全球经济增长和需求增加是不可能的,再加上更大的减产,与非欧佩克成员国,如俄罗斯,墨西哥和挪威签订协议是令原油价格在维持$ 60的基础上提价的唯一方法。

因此,我们认为原油价格上涨在很快时间内影响良性通胀前景是非常不可能的。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.