每日更新 - 巴西 - 虽奥运成功,但前路漫漫 The Daily Update - Olympic successes but a marathon ahead

在今年的奥运会(Olympic)和残奥会(Paralympic)比赛期间,巴西(Brazil)一直为世人所瞩目,昨日等待弹劾的迪尔玛·罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)总统更是大家瞩目的焦点。这条新闻反映了巴西腐败的幅度(即使一度作为反腐先驱的工党(Worker’s Party)也难于幸免);也说明,只有通过势在必行的改革,才能帮助巴西平息最近几个月的政治动乱和挽回连年疲软的经济增长颓势。事实上,超预期成功举办2016年夏季奥运会,帮助巴西坚定了信心,他们也乐观的认为自己具有解决不计其数政治和经济难题的能力,只要假以时日。

在这场国内动乱中,巴西(Brazil)最不想看到的是太多的负面宣传和在全球体育舞台上的失败。这种尴尬将是对其国际猜测的确认,该猜测认为目前的巴西管理无能并且没有能力克服眼前所面临的种种挑战。不过幸好,在将来回首本届奥运会(和充满希望的残奥会(Paralympic))的时候,巴西人将会满怀自豪;在这样一个需要不断通过体育成功来获得必要激励的国度,可不是一件小事。

在上个月的奥运会(Olympic)比赛中,巴西(Brazil)位于奖牌榜的第13位,令人尊重。他们共获得19块奖牌,包括7块金牌(包括令人瞩目的男子足球主场金牌),这是他们获得奖牌最多的一次。不过他们最大的成就在于,作为东道主的相对成功。尽管偶有街头骚乱出现,并有警察在机场打着“欢迎来到地狱”的旗帜迎接游客; 里约奥运会(Rio Games)还是大体上克服了后勤保障、金融财政、基础设施、疾病预防、恐怖袭击和犯罪等问题,完成了激动人心的开幕式和闭幕式,比赛过程也很顺利,值得称道。在比赛期间,最惹人关注的持枪抢劫事件,很明显是一场酗酒闹剧,而这场闹剧的主角就是令人不耻的美国游泳金牌获得者安·洛赫特(Ryan Lochte)。

巴西于9年前申办本届奥运会(Olympic)和残奥会(Paralympic)。从那时起,诸多不顺令此事看上去像是冒了极大风险,并终将失败。确实在比赛之前,仍有三分之二的当地人认为举办奥运会弊大于利。他们在金融财政方面似乎做得也不错。在上世纪,对于主办国来说,据估计只有1984年的洛杉矶(Los Angeles)奥运会(Olympic)是唯一一届赢利的奥运会(Olympic),从1960年开始,没有一届盛会是不超预算的。尽管里约(Rio)的花费超出了大约51%的预算,还是略低于56%的往届预算超支。里约奥运会(Rio Games)估计总花费为46亿美元,比上一届花费最多的夏季和冬季奥运会(Summer and Winter Olympics)的三分之一和四分之一还要少:2012年伦敦(London)花费为150亿美元,2014年索契(Sochi)花费更是达到219亿美元。

但从声誉方面来讲,里约奥林匹克盛会(Rio Olympics)还是为这尊一度沉睡的拉丁美洲巨兽挽回了些许颜面。巴西(Brazil)和许多其他中南美洲的国家一样,仍然处于经济不确定性的险境,我们的国外净资产分析(Net Foreign Asset Analysis)认为该国的债务位于国民生产总值(GDP)的50%一线(我们认为这个程度的总负债过大,容易受到冲击)。当总负债和不确定性达到如此程度,投资风险极大,可考虑将投资调整到美洲以外的地方,以期获得回报。我们将当前的负面政治新闻看作长期积极改革潮流的一部分,通过彻底的改革,或许会使得这里重新成为值得投资的地区。不过就像巴西(Brazil)奥运会(Olympic)的足球金牌一样,投资人和改革者还需要耐心等待一些时日,同时忍受一些煎熬,之后才会获得应有的回报。至少目前,以旁观者的角度来看,似乎其他一些地方依然具有更高的投资价值和更好的投资机会。

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