每日更新 - 德国及欧元区的民粹主义 The Daily Update - Populism in Germany and the Eurozone

市场正相对沉寂地等待未来24小时内的主要事件-欧洲央行明天在法兰克福召开的理事会会议(或者对一些人来说是新款苹果手机发布和今天稍后的苹果主题演讲)。然而,德国另一边发生的事情也值得关注,即在默克尔家乡梅克伦堡,反体制德国替代党(AfD)赢取州议会,继而默克尔的基督教民主党(CDU)下降到第三位。这可能是民粹主义反移民德国替代党进一步上升的重要前兆,甚至会导致2017年联邦选举变动。目前民意调查支持德国替代党为15%左右,如果该支持率继续保持或增加,他们会获得议会足够的席位,对抗基督教民主党和社会民主党(SPD)组成的大联合政府。即使无足轻重者闯入德国联邦议院,也可能会阻碍欧元区政治决策和工业引擎,导致德国和欧元区面临改革和决断。

对于德国来说,还好,民粹主义的崛起仍处于早期和(希望是)脆弱期;东北部的梅克伦堡以非典型政治主张而为人知,而传统政党仍然在西部流行。但不足之处正是欧洲其他地区的政治局势。一贯以来,英国,法国,西班牙,葡萄牙,意大利和许多其他更具倾向性的党派继续保持比大多数此前预期更快的增长势头。如果他们能作为参照的话,德国可能会步其后尘。几乎所有的欧洲主要经济体已经成为政治动乱和分裂的研究案例,这在公众感觉到或被动感觉到经济衰退和经济停滞时时有发生。

当一个国家拥有财政空间安抚工人阶级短期的财政压力,消除人们对工作和政府服务不足的担忧时,这样的不满和担忧更容易消除。而如果超出某一程度,净外债国家很可能一直恶化问题,从而面临金融,财政和政治恶化问题; 借贷利率迅速增加,公共支出蒸发。与此同时,在这种经济动荡进行期间,如果一个新兴激进的政党掌权,其结果无疑失败。这一说明仅仅是我们为什么强烈支持投资对外净债权国的间接原因,因为其本身不太可能面临不断增长的赤字(即使私人发行者易受赋税增加影响)。德国当然是一个净债权国,但背负着更多欧元区经济负担-目前舆论比实际的财政义务更多。但公众正发表自己的意见表达不满只会让欧元区财政统一更难,而德国政府将不得不考虑在明年的选举中支持率下降。

在今天的演讲中,德国总理默克尔称德国替代党是“议会所有人的挑战”;但鉴于德国对欧元区成功的重要地位,德国替代党仅是整个欧盟更广泛的民粹主义挑战的一部分,她可能低估了问题的影响范围。

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