每日更新 - 俄罗斯 The Daily Update - Russia

鉴于俄罗斯债券自2015年初以来表现强劲,惠誉国际维持俄罗斯主权财富基金投资评级似乎是一个精明的打算,虽然下调至BBB-,其同行在2015年早些时候在悲观主义情绪下下调评级至低于投资级。继欧洲和美国在吞并克里米亚和乌克兰僵局的背景下实施制裁后,标准普尔和穆迪均下调其评级至“垃圾”。 因此,有趣的是,标准普尔9月16日对俄罗斯前景看法改观,但仍然保留了BB +长期外币评级。

标准普尔指出,外部风险“有所显著减轻”,鉴于较低的油价环境和制裁,经济已经有所调整。他们预测, “2017年至2019年,经济可能恢复实际国内生产总值增长,增长率平均为1.6%。”前景改善的一个关键因素是私人部门资本净流出增加,其“在2009-2013年期间,平均每年数额达到$ 570亿,并在2014年增加至$ 1520亿”。 然而,这些资本外流在2015年下降到$580亿,与历史平均持平,并且我们预计资本外流会进一步下跌,2016年平均值约为$ 400亿。我们还预计经常账户盈余在2016 - 2019年平均将达到国内生产总值3.8%,从而弥补金融账户赤字”。

尽管财政压力仍然存在,标准普尔预计政府赤字在2016至1019年期间将缩小(平均占国内生产总值的3.3%); 财政部的目标是到2019年,每年削减国内生产总值1%的预算赤字。此外,政府在2016-2019年期间应该能够保持一个比较低的一般政府债务水平(流动资产净额),且不超过国内生产总值的13%。

继本月俄罗斯议会选举结果出来(其中统一俄罗斯党进一步增加了对普京总统的大力支持),惠誉国际指出,他们会密切关注将于10月份公布的预算。对他们来说,鉴于较低的油价环境和对进一步财政节省的需要,财政状况很关键。他们指出‘俄罗斯BBB- /负主权评级风险已经从外部资金转向公共财政。继续控制开支和实施可信的中期财政框架,可能会带来积极影响。而如果未能从衰退中复苏,再加上偏移既定的宏观经济和财政政策目标,结果将是负面的。’

有趣的是,俄罗斯联邦政府没有直接出现在制裁名单上,而是指向某些国有企业。这意味着,主权财富基金仍然能够进入市场,并在2016年5月发行17.5亿美元的欧洲债券,该债券被视为符合七月欧洲结算系统。此外,本周俄罗斯继五月发行2026年到期利率4.75%的票据后,再次发行USD12.5亿,尽管受叙利亚停火影响,该发行市场看好:该票据翻了六倍,而发行价格为3.9%的收率。

明斯克II协定的执行一直缓慢,这令人失望,但仍然是解决乌克兰崩溃问题的关键,并最有可能解除对俄罗斯实体的制裁。普京总统最近指出“在我看来,我完全同意诺曼底格式会议与会者,也同意美国的立场-除了履行明斯克协议之外,没有其他选择,”他继续指出“我们将真诚努力履行协议,但我们无法自己完成,我们需要诺曼底格式成员国和美国的合作,因为只有他们对基辅现任当局有实际的影响。”他总结道“没有乌克兰领导人的政治意愿,这一任务是不可能完成的。”

本月早些时候弗朗索瓦·奥朗德在G20峰会评论:“在乌克兰,我们必须继续推进明斯克进程,解决当前的瓶颈问题,包括对特殊政策的落实,安全形势和各方之间缺乏信任的问题。我们同意在未来几周内组织德国,法国,俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的峰会”。

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