每日更新 - 日本央行和收益曲线目标 - 日本央行的另一锦囊妙计?The Daily Update - The BoJ and yield curve targeting - another trick up the Bank of Japan's sleeve?

日本央行(BOJ)现在似乎已经尝试过够多的政策,例如今天引入收益率曲线,规定10年期政府债券〜0%收益率上限,扩大资产购买目标截止时间,做出“通胀超调承诺” 作为对其持续(保持在-0.1%)负利率政策和质化宽松(目前预计将保持每年接近80万亿日元)的补充。

这种政策转变给日本央行带来了更多的灵活性,从而不需要采取很多实际行动推动通胀走高。事实上,日本央行没有宣布预期的进一步下调利率至负值政策,但市场对该消息起初反应积极。根据外汇市场,该积极反应甚至没有持续一早上,尽管申明,降息仍有可能跌破公布前的水平至100.70,此前短暂持续几个小时在102.80。不过,东证股价指数保持2.7%的涨幅至1352,这是因为收益率曲线潜在变陡和负短期利率延迟会尤其推动保险公司发展。

新的灵活性确实令日本央行更加游刃有余:它似乎已经悄然放弃了不切实际的达到2%通胀目标的2年时间表,这表明通胀超调是可以容忍的,广泛的收益率曲线目标是可行的,而不是量化宽松分配金额和期限,而关键利率不断走向负值具有进一步可能性。因此,了解日本央行的思维,而不仅仅是今天的重大政策转变,对预测更加重要。同样的,今天的“综合评估” 细节对于评估日本银行行长黑田东彦,以及日本央行内部的心态同样重要。如果通缩疑虑犹存,日元进一步加强,他们会做出多么大胆的决策?

日本的根本问题之一是,太多的收入流入业务部门,而消费领域不足。目前可以实施安倍经济学的所谓“四箭”,即迫使工资上涨政策,从而抵消这一负面影响;同样的,可以增加企业所得税,切换到“直升机” 货币刺激政策,尽管这一措施备受争议。虽然这一最后的选择仍然是一个禁忌,在政治方面难以实施-并很有可能之后取消-在过去,日本是实施直升机撒钱措施而没有导致恶性通货膨胀的少数国家之一。在20世纪30年代初期,财务大臣高桥允许政府赤字直接融资,从而拯救日本大萧条。(不幸的是,他后来由于尝试放松这一政策,并通过减少军费开支削减赤字而遭暗杀。通货膨胀确实猛增,但不完全是高桥政策的结果,很大程度上是二战的结果。)

因此,日本央行仍然有锦囊妙计在手,并且这份最新报告表明日本像世界其他地方一样,还是认为“直升机撒钱”不可行。但仍然有可能他们已经准备实施第四箭政策,至少可以根据未来的通胀预期,而不是前一年的措施实施结果,促进工资增长。毕竟,过去二十多年,全职工资持平,很多人都认为该政策姗姗来迟。最近七月增长最低工资的措施不仅直接影响约10%的劳动力,而且似乎会产生积极的作用。但是,这还远远不是解决日本逆境需要的灵丹妙药。公共赤字仍是国内生产总值的6%,公共债务已经大约为国内生产总值的250%(据国际货币基金组织计算,这需要在2020年转为6%的基本盈余,从而在2030年,使净公共债务降低到国内生产总值的80%)。还有人口迅速老化问题,日本人口到2060年预计将下降30%。由于来自技术含量越来越高而价格更便宜的亚洲邻国的日益激烈的竞争,日本生产会下降而劳动力市场议价能力会进一步削弱。有鉴于此,一些市场将日本央行近期举动描述为“重新摆放泰坦尼克号甲板上的躺椅一样无济于事”。 我们现在还没察觉日本经济衰退,但其明显仍然存在很多漏洞有待修补。

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