每日更新 - 土耳其垃圾评级 The Daily Update - Turkey Junkey

正如普遍预期,评级机构穆迪将土耳其Baa3级长期评级下调一级至Ba1垃圾级。穆迪指出“该国相当大的外部资金需求相关风险增加”,此外“之前看好的信用基础,尤其是经济增长与机构力量削弱”,这是其下调其评级的主要原因。穆迪的一份报告还强调了土耳其对事件风险易感性“高”, 并表达了其对土耳其易受政治不稳定影响和地缘政治风险的担忧。该风险来自于“叙利亚正在进行的内战和伊拉克危机。”七月未遂政变后,标准普尔迅速调降土耳其评级至BB,不过穆迪表示,其需要时间来审查之后的情况,并指出,“外国资本流动突然中断,储备金更快速下降,甚至最糟的是,支付危机平衡的风险有所增加。”而惠誉是唯一维持土耳其投资级评级BBB-的主要评级机构。

虽然其在新兴市场非常看好,我们从未持有土耳其债务,主要原因是土耳其斯特拉顿街NFA评分只有2分; 因此,不在值得投资的范围之列。而且,根据相对价值模型,我们计算出基准政府曲线已经在降级后进行定价,因此交易相当接近公允价值,5年期最有吸引力。2026年到期利率5.625%的债券预期收益率只有2.5%,信用等级仅为1.5;因此,我们更愿意投资7星, Aa2 / AA级的主权债务,比如2030年到期利率9.75%的卡塔尔主权基金,其预期收益率为11%左右,信用等级为5.5。

一夜之间,所有的目光都集中在美国总统辩论,此后市场再次呈现其下意识的反应;该拉力赛中克林顿接近1:0取胜。新兴市场(尤其是大宗商品相关市场)货币和债券反弹不错,而避险资产回落; 黄金价格下跌而日元减弱。非常明显的是,克林顿取胜有利于市场发展,而特朗普入驻白宫的想法将带来避险环境。墨西哥比索昨天明显是赢家,从历史低点上涨〜1.5%,而10年期美国国债收益率跌破1.6%。我们期待9日和19日接下来的两场辩论会提供任何进一步的线索。在此期间,我们将继续持有高评级债券,保持有吸引力的位置;提供收益率为3.5-4%的单一A级投资组合。

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