每日更新 - 美国选举演算并不总是相加 The Daily Update - US electoral calculus does not always add up

继周一美国总统辩论后,调查数据显示国务卿希拉里·克林顿支持率小幅回升,估计其有〜56%的几率获胜,而唐纳德特朗普有44%几率获胜。希拉里精心准备的发言和其网站事实查证团队似乎已经动摇大约25%中间选民中的至少一小部分。离民众投票不到六个星期,希拉里似乎打算赢得西部和东北部各邦以及大湖州(不包括印第安纳州)和新墨西哥州支持。特朗普有望横扫许多小的中部和南部大州。根据五三八的调查,数据建模和选举模拟,通常的情况是,佛罗里达州,宾夕法尼亚州,密歇根州,北卡罗来纳州,俄亥俄州和科罗拉多州是(按顺序)最有可能摇摆不定的州。该政治研究小组曾正确预测2012年总统大选中所有州的支持者-当然希望今年再次正确预测。但这一过程也存在一些有趣的怪异模式。

也许最令人震惊的奇异之处在于(在极端情形下,在人口较少的州险胜而在大州没有获得选票),候选人只需22%选票就能够入驻白宫。得票最多者当选的总统选举团的分配规则和对小州的偏见意味着候选人即使能够赢得民众投票的78%,但仍然在选举团是不利的。该投票模式不太可能是普遍极端的,但少数票确实给选举团带来优势,如在戈尔获得五十万以上的选票的情况下,小布什在2000年仍然竞选获胜。1876年和1888年同样也发生该情况,在55次选举中有5%的发生率。另一特点是,候选人可能赢得普选,但仍然失去明年一月六号的选举团投票。希拉里在11月8日获胜概率大约为8%,但其538选举团选票仍无法足以击败特朗普。因此,在六周的时间内哪位候选人胜利的幅度对评估这种逆转可能性十分重要。仍然值得注意的,不坚定支持特朗普的选民和不坚定支持克林顿的选民可能同样多;许多共和党人仍然更关注于自由民主党的政策而不是候选人可憎的性格,并留意其他长期目标,如选举至少一个保守派原始主义最高法院法官。随着这样紧密的赛程展开,以及更多总统候选人和副总统候选人进行辩论,市场都希望随着更多游离选民被迫评估各方权利要求的可行性和有效性,国务卿希拉里获胜可能性加大。

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