每日更新 - 2017年的不确定性和不平等 The Daily Update - Uncertainty and inequality in 2017

离2017年只有几天时间,布伦特原油价格已经触及每桶58美元,因为美国金融市场新年重新开放,11家公司已经卖出了创纪录的200亿美元的债务,富时指数100假期已经稳步攀升达到新的历史新高,昨天超过7,200。但与这些最高纪录形成对比的是,整体乐观情绪仍远远低于历史最高点;这是因为市场似乎试图利用短期机会,而仍然看空长期前景。2008年全球金融危机的所有根本问题,并没有被搁置。股市和主要住房市场(平均但分化基础)已经反弹,许多主要经济体的失业已经减少,银行通常更好地资本化; 但全球去杠杆化仍然缓慢进行(或相反),不平等不仅仍然很严重,而且已成为民众和政治不满的主要驱动因素,货币波动性增加,这些长期的经济压力已经对2017年外国关系造成损害。

关于不平等,今天已被标为“肥猫星期三”,因为到今天中午,平均高层管理人员的平均工资约为400万英镑,已经达到英国平均约28,000英镑的工资。不平等是2016年许多经济事件的主要影响因素,并且貌似将成为2017年改革,示威和争吵的驱动因素,不仅在美国,而且在全球均为如此。富人和债务人之间在个人和国家一级的更大的不平衡增加了不稳定的风险-已经更糟的人将面临更大的风险。这适用于普通被剥夺权利的美国特朗普投票人,他们可能发现2周和2天的总统执政时间可能通过可能损害许多全球相互依赖的美国产业的潜在政策造成更严重的经济后果。但它也适用于有大量净外债的国家 -特别是那些以美元计价的国家,以及在过去8年内推迟解决问题,已经消耗了大量政治资本的国家。

在今天的一次采访中,美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)称,即将上任的总统,意味着“在意识形态上,以及我们在过去75年在美国所看到的实质性政策方面,最大的过渡 ,市场仍然没有考虑这对全球市场的不确定性。在这种不确定的时刻 - 但是与12个月前相比,全球前景更长远 - 保持高级债权国债券价值的优势是明显的。这种债权国的债务应该不那么容易遭受美元和美元反弹或美国政策损害全球增长的可能性。与此同时,随着2017年到来,我们仍然相信,我们的投资流程和理念将帮助我们发现任何市场调整带来的价值机会。

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