每日更新 - 美联储和中国 The Daily Update - Fed and China

随着美联储继续在不确定性阴影下运行,最近12月会议联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要表明,委员会发现,向公众传达联邦基金利率的可能路径是有挑战性的。虽然美联储官员预计美国经济增长将由于潜在的财政部署面临上调风险,但参与者强调,他们对未来财政和其他经济政策措施的时间安排,规模和组成以及这些政策如何影响总需求和供应持有不巨大确定性。许多美联储成员还认为,中央银行可能需要比以前预期更快地提高利率,因为通胀可能开始过滤经济,失业风险低于其长期正常水平状况有所增加 随着三个25个基点的美联储加息在2017年上升,所有关于特朗普政府和经济的不确定性可能导致美联储采取观望态度,中央银行可能继续承诺有余而履行不足,因为它看起来会正常化价格。

会议纪要背后,美国财政运动的变化很小,但美元已经避开最近的历史高点,因为特朗普反弹似乎接近尾声。与此同时,离岸人民币出人意料地占领了市场,反弹到兑美元接近两个月的高点;这是因为中国的宏观数据保持稳定至积极,加之本周令人鼓舞的阻止先前无目标的资本外流的措施。

中国的增长数据使许多去年的怀疑论者大吃一惊,我们在今年年初看到了进一步的强劲势头。本周,12月份的官方和财新采购经理人指数显示服务业和制造业进一步扩张;财新非制造业在17个月内增长至最强水平。如果特朗普支持基础设施支出的竞选承诺的确实现了,尽管有不明白的惩罚性进口税的警告,这无疑会推动中国出口。

随着中国经济的快速改革,国内消费保持强劲,贸易不再是国内生产总值增长的最大贡献者,中国的情绪似乎在改善;尽管特朗普的美国保护主义承诺。据知情人士透露,超过60%的中国出口产品是美国,日本和欧元区以外的市场。因此,如果特朗普对中国出口实行45%的关税,并将进口从中国削减50%,对国家多元化交易收入流的影响最有可能被最大限度地扩大。本周彭博经济学家将其2017年第一季度中国增长预测从持续刺激和全球需求强劲背景下的6.5%,上调至6.6%。

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