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劳动节!劳动节!今天早上的市场在英国首相特丽萨梅职业生涯中最重要的演讲之前振作起来,在演讲中她对极其关注的英国退欧策略有所透露。

英国股市风险规避基调偏高,10年金边债券收益率下跌约5个基点至1.248%,富时指数暴跌约0.45%,而这仅在开始的15-20分钟内。在特丽萨梅(Theresa May)表示英国不可能继续留在欧洲单一市场后,富时继续走低,而基准金边债券收益率达到日内高位1.32%。虽然离开单一市场不是对市场而言最好的消息,至少已得到应验。顺便说一句,无论如何,这已经调整得差不多了,因为梅自去年以来已经重申了这一点,而且英国退欧蓝图在梅演讲之前已经泄漏。

同时货币市场解读梅的公告 - 退出交易将通过英国议会投票,同时寻求新的贸易机会 –为积极;在攥写本报告时,英镑兑欧元大幅飙升约1.5%,兑美元贬值约2.5%。在唐纳德·特朗普昨天接受“华尔街日报”采访时表示,美元“太强”, 加上他的反全球化言论,美元情绪备受打击,DXY(美元)指数今年已经下跌超过1.7%。

梅演讲的主要内容是:英国将离开单一市场,但英国将寻求获得海关联盟的“准成员资格”并建立一个独立的,自治的,全球的英国和我们在欧盟的朋友和盟友之间新的平等伙伴关系。在移民方面,梅表示控制英国的边界是一个优先事项,并补充说,英国将继续欢迎“最聪明,最优秀人才在英国学习和工作”,但是,英国将控制来自欧盟的人数。

现在谈论英国经济将如何受到“彻底的英国退欧”的影响还为时过早,因为一旦议会投票,谈判将开始。然而,国际货币基金组织今年将英国经济增长预测升至1.5%,将2018年增长预期下调至1.4%。可能的贸易壁垒和其他未知的英国退欧效应的警告可能导致这些预测有所修订。

除了对英国本身的影响外,必须考虑出口在英国退出后对欧盟的影响。政治经济联盟将失去巨大的资金来源(仅在2015年向欧盟捐款就达到130亿英镑),并且必须考虑对当前关税自由贸易协定所产生的后果,因为英国从欧盟进口大约50%货物。预计欧盟将在今年法国和德国即将举行的选举中面临来自其他国家持续的反体制和反全球化情绪浪潮。

例如,我们的全球债券投资组合通过苏格兰寡妇(Scottish Widow)的利率5.5%2023到期基金面向英国。该债券由穆迪和标准普尔评级BBB +,由惠誉评级A-,已经很好地得到保持了。虽然自公民投票结果宣布后,可比的利率2.25%2023到期金边债券收益率只下降2个基点,苏格兰寡妇基金已上涨5.9点,收益交易下降107个基点。英镑债券继续提供非常有吸引力的约9%风险调整预期回报,收益率超过3.87%,信用等级保护达到4.7-5.7(取决于使用的评级)。

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