每日更新 - 墨西哥和汽油 The Daily Update - Mexico and Gasolinazo

由于自1月1日汽油成本平均增长14%引起的暴动和示威,墨西哥一直是本月的头条新闻。在新制度下,价格反映了国际参考价格加固定税的价格,从而将价格波动转移到消费者并解决政府收入。此外,90个地区将设置最高价格,而不是反映后勤差异的单一国家价格。不出所料,消费者一直反对价格一夜之间上涨这么多。虽然汽油价格为0.82美元/升,高于美国的0.69美元,但对比智利,巴西和中国的1.15美元,1.18美元和1美元,似乎并非不合理;现实情况是在2006年和2013年之间,管制价格从未调整到适应市场走势,政府最终补贴汽油消费。估计显示2008年的补贴达到国内生产总值的1.8%(花旗)。 2013年,政府开始实行价格自由化政策,着手改革并积极看待任何财政整顿。

墨西哥是一个有趣的案例,因为尽管其石油储量丰富,但它对美国是汽油净进口国。估计显示有限的炼油能力意味着高达60%的汽油需求倾向于从美国进口。这是政府2013年颁布的能源改革计划试图解决的一个领域,即取消补贴和放开行业,结束墨西哥石油公司对该行业的垄断,允许私营公司进口燃料。然而,它仍然导致价格下降,总统佩尼亚·尼托认为这会是改革的结果。

毫无帮助的是,该次调整时,甚至在汽油价格上涨(汽油)之前,通胀篮子价格已经一般呈上升压力,12月消费者物价指数达到3.36%。再加上最低工资将按年增长9.6%,尽管这只会影响约15%的劳动力。由于通货膨胀高于中央银行的3%目标,而比索兑美元正在进一步脆弱,因此墨西哥银行将面临再次加息的压力。但是卡斯滕斯州长(昨天发言)认为燃料价格和最低工资上涨的影响是暂时的,同时他也认为外汇转嫁通胀已经显着下降。他将目前的比索波动描述为缺乏投资组合流帮助的“过度反应”。

经济增长正在放缓,如果在特朗普任期带来负面的贸易状况,情况可能会更糟。显然,为了在美国定居,福特取消了一个价值16亿美元的大型扩建项目,这并非预示与美国建立了繁荣的贸易关系; 汽车工业是特朗普的主要目标,因为它占美国与墨西哥贸易逆差的很大一部分。2015年,美国从墨西哥进口的汽车和汽车零件超过了584亿美元的总体货物贸易逆差。卡斯滕斯州长还指出,特朗普领导下,墨西哥增长的不确定性增加,以及需要寻求其他市场多元化。

在选举特朗普为美国总统之后,穆迪将其2017年的墨西哥增长预测2.5%和2018年估计的2.7%分别下调至1.9%和2.3%。北美自由贸易协定贸易关系的变化可能有进一步的负面影响。墨西哥是美国的大出口国,对美国的出口占其国内生产总值的20%以上。2015年,墨西哥对美国的汽车出口占到墨西哥国内生产总值的6%。墨西哥已任命前财政部长长维德加瑞(Luis Videgaray)担任外交部长职务,负责处理特朗普政府管理下的贸易关系问题。

现在确定多少特朗普的言辞会得到实际政策实施还为时尚早,但如果墨西哥比索可以提供任何指示,一个相当悲观的情景已经得到考虑,同时更高的通货膨胀和利率具有消极性。积极方面是,墨西哥正面临财政实力位置的一场风暴。穆迪最新的2016年估计,将一般政府债务占国内生产总值的比例划定为35.8%,财政赤字为2.3%。关系我们的是,美国墨西哥合众国利率4.6%2046到期的美元债券在最佳评级(A3)基础上交易约2.7等级。虽然,墨西哥石油公司利率 6.625%2035到期的半主权债券在我们的模型上更加吸引人,交易约5.7个信用等级;它100%由政府所有,评级等同于Baa1(标准普尔/惠誉最佳评级)。

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