每日更新 - 非农业就业报告 The Daily Update - NFPR

今年12月非农就业人数增加了156,000人,低于预期创造的175,000个就业岗位,尽管前一个月的178,000人新增就业人数调整为204,000人。失业率由11月份的4.6%上升至4.7%,参与率维持在62.7%。但是,平均小时收益同比上升至2.9%,高于上个月同比2.5%,高于预期的同比2.8%。如果失业率下降到低于其长期正常水平,由于美联储会议记录谈到更大的通货膨胀风险,工资数据可能受到市场密切监测;但美国国债在目前的水平上定价已经面临很多风险,在撰写本文时,联邦基金期货存在小的重新定价。

有趣的是,联邦公开市场委员会的下一次轮换也将在本月进行。联邦公开市场委员会由多达十二个投票成员组成:其中七个来自理事会,其与纽约联储主席构成永久投票成员,四个成员来自其他十一个区域储备银行,其任期一年轮流接任。轮流席位占满,以确保区域多元化,席位从每四个组中选出一个成员:第一,波士顿,费城和里士满联储; 第二,克利夫兰和芝加哥联储;第三,亚特兰大,圣路易斯和达拉斯联储;第四,明尼阿波利斯,堪萨斯城和旧金山。

目前的联邦公开市场委员会只有十个有表决权的成员,因为七个理事会席位只有五个已经任命:珍妮特·耶伦,斯坦利·菲舍尔,丹尼尔·塔鲁洛,杰罗姆·鲍威尔和莱尔·布拉纳德。美国总统必须提名理事会候选人,然后必须由美国参议院确认。在巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)领导下,艾伦·兰登(Allan Landon)和凯瑟琳·多明格斯(Kathryn Dominguez)被提名担任董事会,但参议院所要求的确认听证会从未举行。显然,唐纳德·特朗普很可能提名自己的候选人。

本月,董事会下一轮轮换将举行,我们将看到洛雷塔·梅斯特(Loretta Mester,克利夫兰联储主席),埃丝特·乔治(Esther George,堪萨斯城联储主席),詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard,圣路易斯联储主席)和埃里克·罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren,波士顿联储主席)由帕特里克·哈克(费城联储),尼尔·卡什卡里(明尼阿波利斯联储),罗伯特·卡普兰(达拉斯联储)和查尔斯·埃文斯(芝加哥联储)取代。

一个问题是,这个新阵容是否会对投票倾向构成很大的影响,因为即将离任的选民梅斯特和乔治和罗森格伦在各种联邦公开市场委员会会议都表示不同意(而是希望提高利率)。在接任的投票人中,以前是投票成员的埃文斯是众人皆知的鸽派,其他3个美联储总统都是投票委员会的新成员。卡什卡里也被认为有鸽派的倾向。

其他2个入选选民的评论似乎更符合中间派,似乎支持增加利率,但逐步增加。罗伯特·卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)赞成采取措施使货币政策“正常化”,因为在惩罚储户方面存在过度调节的成本,同时在资产配置,投资,雇用和其他商业决策方面会造成潜在的扭曲和不平衡。即便如此,他明确主张“逐步和耐心地解决调节问题”。 本人认识到,从风险管理的角度来看,我们的货币政策工具零下限或接近零下限,是不对称的,也就是说,在正常化进程的这一点上,收紧政策比放松政策更容易。尽管帕特里克·哈克(Patrick Harker)指出:“自然资金利率下降对当前货币政策应该正常化的速度有影响。自然资金利率越低,当前资金利率越接近该水平,这意味着政策更接近完全正常化。”

相较于大多数人,我们对市场增长不太乐观。特朗普财政政策的短期影响可能是预算和经常账户赤字的增加,而联邦公开市场委员会可能比增长改善情况下的情况更快地收紧。然而,我们预计美国国债收益率曲线将平缓,因为投资者看穿了短期增长提振,开始组合考虑美国经济较长期前景下美元走强和较高的短期利率。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.