每日更新 - 土耳其落后于形势 The Daily Update - Turkey forced behind the curve

除了强硬/温和的英国退欧谈判和特朗普雇用儿媳为高级顾问之外,土耳其似乎已经慢慢占据新闻头条,因为其政治不确定性,社会和安全的不稳定性,国家经济前景看起来越来越苍凉。

在政治上,该国议会昨天约⅗投票赞成宪法修正案,因此可以在17年第二季度举行公民投票 – 可能埃尔多安总统会获得更多的总统权力,可能延长任期到2029年。解散议会权力有利于更多的极权主义政权,可能进一步侵蚀土耳其加入欧盟的机会,因此会进一步打击已经脆弱的投资者情绪。

从宏观的角度来看,增长急剧下降,疲弱的里拉加剧了价格压力; 12月通货膨胀上升至8.53%。尽管里拉兑美元今年迄今为止已经骤然下跌超过6.5%,触及新低位,此外去年崩溃17.2%,“落后于形势的”央行却还没有在一个有意义的尺度上进行干预,很可能是出于恐惧。 CBT今天强调了其对里拉下滑的担忧,因此增加了约15亿美元的外汇流动性,并将全线存款准备金率降低了50个基点。中央银行对外汇不匹配采取行动的意愿使货币从记录高点短暂下降,但我们不能确定这个“小额货币”足以阻止进一步的贬值。尽管储备正在迅速耗尽,需要通过加息或通过进一步干预,实施更加实质性的政策。

土耳其的长期评级在2016年由穆迪和标准普尔降级为垃圾,而惠誉维持其在投资级BBB评级,前景暗淡。金融危机爆发之前,土耳其被视为一个新兴市场的宝石,然而如今投资者热情大幅下降;土耳其是一个我们从来没有热衷投资的国家,主要是由于它的2星级净外国资产排名,还因为我们以前在该国看到很少的相对价值。我们宁愿投资于同等级的俄罗斯持股,我们认为其基础更牢固。事实上,做一个简单的比较可以看看国家的信用违约掉期; 土耳其5年期CDS目前的交易量比俄罗斯高出65%以上。

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