每日更新 - 美国人口统计 The Daily Update - US demographics

就这样,当选总统的特朗普的新闻发布会如预期进行,让你自己的领袖......迅速开展政绩是多好的主意。

特朗普对美国财政部长(姆努奇恩)的选择期望在未来一段时间内实现3%至4%的国内生产总值,这与2009年以来每年大约2%的变化相比有了很大的变化,当然,我们等待这将如何实现的细节。我们确实知悉特朗普对基础设施支出,减税和鼓励美国公司把离岸资金带回国内的选举承诺。然而,我们也预见贸易摩擦和显而易见的移民问题,这可能导致进入美国面临更严格的政策,当然一些无证的居民会被驱逐。

困难在于,为了实现这一增长水平,生产力需要大幅提高,且美国劳动力确实需要大幅增长,没有这些因素,国内生产总值就无法加速。表面上,移民政策似乎与经济需要的方向背道而驰。

事实上美国人口统计状况不是很好。如上所述,自2009年以来,经济每年增长约2%,而人口每年仅增长0.76%,而1998年至2008年十年间为0.93%,且情况呈下降趋势。根据美国人口普查局12月公布的估计,去年美国人口增长到3.24亿,达到自2013年以来的最小年增长率,这是自1937年大萧条期间以来的最低增长率。因此,自全球金融危机结束以来,生产力面临的挑战受到了相反方向的人口因素的影响。

人口普查局关于住房市场的信息似乎反映了人口问题,因为在过去五年里,新住户的数量比2008年前的十年平均减少了32%。似乎有意义的是,购买较少货物的人等同于较低价格压力,导致老化设备和设备的投资减少 - 最终导致生产率下降;这与姆努奇恩先生的预测相反。

特朗普政府的移民政策,虽然在这个阶段尚不清楚,但肯定不包括移民,面对令人担忧的人口情况,这是非常可怕的; 任何人都想提及日本的人口统计,其在二十年后仍然试图策划增长和通货膨胀。

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