每日新闻更新 - 30年前的今天…… The Daily Update - 30 years ago today…

30年前的今天,也就是现在我们所说的黑色星期一(由于时区差异,在澳大利亚和新西兰也叫黑色星期二),道琼斯下跌508点,下跌22.61%,至1,738.74点。当然,快速跌落的不只是道琼斯。月底香港下跌45.5%,澳大利亚下跌41.8%,西班牙下跌31%,富时指数下跌26.45%。然而,但表现最差的市场是新西兰,从1987年的峰值下跌了60%。

有趣的是,前一周最后3个交易日没有引起全球实际的崩溃,尽管影响了市场信心。1987年10月14周三当天道琼斯下跌超过95点(3.8%),从八月份峰值下跌12%。这造成了市场紧张,因为已经感觉到股市被高估。1987年8月,道琼斯达到峰值,超过2700点。1987年10月15日周四,阿拉伯湾地区局势紧张,伊朗用飞弹袭击了美国超级油轮Sungai,第二天上午又对轮船Sea Isle City做了同样的事情。在周五,英国受到“大风暴”袭击,电力崩溃,1500万棵被吹倒的树堵塞了全国的公路和铁路线,导致英国和北欧很多国家陷入停滞状态。

现在,关于引起这场崩溃的原因有多种解释。主要的观点之一是买方的流动性突然中止。同时进行的贸易自动切断了所有买入。因此所有投标同时消失,而项目却在努力进行卖出。尽管今天市场更加复杂,但仍有一条主要担忧涉及到交易所交易基金(ETF),特别是在美国。现在这些控制着超过4万亿美元的资产。他们在正常条件下可能会正常运转,但当面临压力时,潜在市场会为流动性而苦苦挣扎,这将打击ETF,加速市场损失。

对一些人来说另一个重大担忧是现在不再存在中央市场。现在市场有12个注册国家交易所,大约有40个交易商/经纪人运营的交易渠道,有无数的日间交易员和其他交易系统。市场比以往已经严重发酵。Birinyi Associate公司创始人Laszlo Birinyi躲过了黑色星期一,他最近警告称“我最大的担忧就是中央市场的缺失”,“当时非常艰难,但我们能看到正在发生的事情。而今天让我担忧的是,很多时候我们看不到正在发生的事情。有太多的渠道,报告也存在很大的差异。我们并不知道在黑池里或者内部交易正在发生什么。”

那么,我们是否很快就会重复历史??美国债券已经多年走强,货币一直在贬值,全球存在资产泡沫,朝鲜问题,英国退欧,意大利金融业,希腊债务,民粹抬头,消费者债务,自由世界的领导人,美国特朗普同其敌人和友人的关系,不断扩大的量化宽松,中国的“全球力量新时代”,气候变化,造成就业威胁的自动化,消除通胀的亚马逊,以及潜在流动性问题。现在已经有足够多的火花,只要一个就足以

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