每日新闻更新 - 太空冒险和导弹制造60年 The Daily Update - 60 years of space adventures and making missiles

当60年前1957年10月4日,苏联将人造卫星Sputnik发射到运行轨道,新闻报道说“今天,天空多了一个月亮”。沙滩球大小的无限电发射机仅在2个月就制成,也点燃了太空竞赛、激发了很多项目:美国随后建立了国家航空航天局(NASA),不到4年后苏联用同样的R-7火箭将航天员加加林送入太空,又过了4年美国人Neil和Buzz在月球留下了人类的第一个脚印。

当时主要的成就和担忧来自将Sputnik送入太空的50吨R-7洲际弹道导弹。苏联成功地推进了纳粹的概念,提前6周完成了当时首个洲际弹道导弹测试,前3次失败后,在第4次成功将导弹射入6000公里的高空,将全世界纳入俄国的控制范围。“俄罗斯必须制造一种能把导弹发射到地球任何位置的洲际火箭。”所以,能够深入太空也一定程度意味着在我们在人类历史上首次拥有了自我灭绝的能力。

我们为60年来人类向太空的冒险而喝彩,也庆幸成功避免了核毁灭的灾难。当然,我们不能忘记那些擦肩而过的风险:1962年古巴导弹危机,1980年美国计算机事故,1983年苏联将云层反射误认为洲际弹道导弹,1995年俄罗斯错误判断了挪威科学试验火箭。而直到现在各种事故也不断发生:2017年美国在没有意识到的情况下,将6个核武器载入一架B-52炸弹,并飞行了25,000公里,然后在毫无警戒的状态下放置了36小时;又比如2010年,由于轨道错误,美国对50个洲际弹道导弹失去联系达1小时;而美国9个有核装备的州肯定还发生了很多我们不知道的事故。

自从成功发射Sputnik之后,苏联/俄罗斯成功发射了大量洲际弹道导弹:超过1750个R-7变体。但现在主要用来为国际空间站的各国航天员提供补给。曾经用于战争的恐怖武器现在更多地被俄罗斯用来支持国际科学合作:现在的国际空间站有3位美国人、2位俄罗斯人和1位意大利人,发射地同Sputnik一样,都是在拜科努尔航天发射基地,采用的是当年R-7火箭变体Soyuz。

朝鲜最近触犯众怒进行了一系列洲际弹道导弹试验,导弹飞越日本和韩国,当我们在思考这件事时,历史会给我们一些有用的背景。60年过去了,所有过去的谨慎和猜疑再次被点燃,但这一次主要是面向东方。我们在西方必须不能忘记其中一些事件是如何发展的。当然,目前还没有证据显示朝鲜科学家有能力缩小核弹头,并运用高速洲际弹道导弹平稳运送。然而,一旦他们具备了这样的能力,无论是意外还是鲁莽地发射都将引起巨大的恐慌,相关的风险将急剧增加。这是该地区的主要不确定性,特别是对韩国,而我们认为这一点还没有被充分理解。例如,韩国天然气公司2042年到期的债券,其价值高出该地区大部分机遇:交易价格仍然同朝鲜成功进行洲际弹道导弹试验前的价格相同,比过去3年的平均价差缩紧了10点。

洲际弹道导弹发明60年以来,形势朝着好的方向发展,我们也希望来自朝鲜的威胁以及平壤的荒谬能够随着时间的流逝、经济的拉拢以及军事的敏感性而逐渐消弭。当下,好好享受生活,谨慎地投资,祈祷世界不会灭亡。谁知道下一个60年会带来什么?

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