每日新闻更新 - 准主权债券和ADCORP The Daily Update - Quasi sovereigns and ADCORP

我们认为,从风险回报的角度而言,准主权债券颇具吸引力。大部分准主权债券交易的价差相对较大,尽管相应政府没有明确表示会担保这些债券,但这些资产的战略重要性意味着政府通常会支持这些资产和债券发行商。

需要承认的是,由于对收益的不断追求,准主权债券的价差在很多市场已经在缩减,但如果从信用评级的角度来看,它们仍能提供有价值的回报和收益。根据巴克莱银行的数据,中等准主权债券的价差已经从2月份的接近90点缩减到现在的大约60点。

本周阿布扎比的原油管道公司ADCOP发行了两支债券,共筹资30.7亿美元。ADCOP由阿布扎比国家石油公司ADNOC全资持有,而ADNOC则是由阿布扎比政府100%持有。标普和惠誉对ADCOP的评级同其对阿布扎比政府的评级相同,均为AA级。

ADCOP所拥有的管道线路总长405公里,将ADNOC从阿布扎比的哈布珊油田23%的石油运输到富查伊拉港,该管道从2012年开始运用,技术成熟,穿过霍尔木兹海峡,该海峡非常繁忙,也减少了运输时间。ADCOP的盈利来自与ADNOC Onshore达成的为期37年的运营协议。ADNOC Onshore是该管道的运营商,由ADNOC持有60%的股份。该协议确保每天至少运输60万桶石油,ADCOP每年可收到至少2.19亿美元,如果需求增加可增加石油运输量。该协议大幅度减少了ADCOP的风险,它有助于支撑债务,可确保信用,使ADCOP免受石油供应和石油价格风险。

ADCOP发行了一支30年期的分期偿还债券,收益率为4.6%,评级为AA,根据我们的模型其交易价格比其所在等级低6档。根据我们的模型,阿布扎比政府2047年到期票息为4.125%的债券收益接近4.2%,交易价格比其所在等级低4档。

尽管较低的石油价格环境导致很多海合会成员国的评级下降,经常账户和财政平衡也正面临压力,政府债券水平开始上升,但是穆迪、标普和惠誉对阿布扎比的评级仍分别保持在Aa2、AA和AA。阿布扎比得益于财政损益平衡的石油价格,国际货币基金组织预计2017年每桶油价为67美元,2018位59美元(阿联酋)。资产缓冲抵消了财政赤字,穆迪预测2017年该国财政赤字占GDP的3.1%,低于2016年的6.7%,这也确保了阿布扎比强劲的财政实力。阿布扎比的政府债务占GDP的水平很低,2016年为4%,预计2017年会上升到7.2%(穆迪预测),国外资产净额强劲,2016年占GDP的282%(惠誉数据)。

我们认为债权国发行的准主权债券仍然是非常有吸引力的投资项目。

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